- Mailza AssisPP40.2%30.3–50.7
- Alan RickREPUBLICANOS29.9%21.6–39.1
- Tião BocalomPSDB15.7%9.4–24.6
+3 more candidates
2026 Governors Model
Pick a state
Click a state
SimulationsAcreAC
Based on 16 polls · runoff 90%
predictionswinsvote
- Mailza AssisPP64%40.2%
- Alan RickREPUBLICANOS21%29.9%
- Thor DantasPSB8%13.3%
- Tião BocalomPSDB5%15.7%
- OthersDr. Luisinho 2% · Eudo Raffael <1%
SimulationsAlagoasAL
Based on 16 polls · runoff 8%
predictionswinsvote
- JHCPSDB57%51.1%
- Renan FilhoMDB41%47.6%
- Márcio JamboDEMOCRATA2%0.6%
- OthersLenilda Luna <1%
SimulationsAmazonasAM
Based on 13 polls · runoff 94%
predictionswinsvote
- Omar AzizPSD50%38.2%
- Roberto CidadeUNIÃO23%22.5%
- David AlmeidaAVANTE11%17.3%
- Maria do CarmoPL10%17.0%
- OthersCabo Daciolo 4% · Isael Munduruku 2% · Gilberto Vasconcelos <1%
SimulationsAmapáAP
Based on 13 polls · runoff 23%
predictionswinsvote
- Dr. FurlanPSD65%52.5%
- Clécio LuísUNIÃO33%43.0%
- Marcos ReateguiDC2%3.7%
- OthersJairo Palheta <1% · Carlos Cley <1%
SimulationsBahiaBA
Based on 19 polls · runoff 20%
predictionswinsvote
- Jerônimo RodriguesPT50%48.0%
- ACM NetoUNIÃO48%48.6%
- Ariel CapistranoDC2%0.8%
- OthersRonaldo Mansur <1% · Aroldo Felix <1% · Maria Bona <1%
SimulationsCearáCE
Based on 27 polls · runoff 7%
predictionswinsvote
- Elmano de FreitasPT77%56.6%
- Ciro GomesPSDB22%41.6%
- OthersDelegado Huggo <1% · Danilo Soares <1% · Serley Leal <1% · Ieri Braga <1% · Zé Batista <1%
SimulationsDistrito FederalDF
Based on 20 polls · runoff 63%
predictionswinsvote
- Celina LeãoPP82%48.6%
- Leandro GrassPT7%20.5%
- José Roberto ArrudaPSD5%17.0%
- Paula BelmontePSDB2%4.3%
- OthersKiko Caputo 2% · Cappelli 2% · Elisson <1% · Expedito Mendonça <1% · Professora Samara Mineiro <1% · Professor Robson <1%
SimulationsEspírito SantoES
Based on 12 polls · runoff 60%
predictionswinsvote
- Ricardo FerraçoMDB71%48.4%
- Lorenzo PazoliniREPUBLICANOS24%36.4%
- Helder SalomãoPT3%14.1%
- Breno BarcelosMISSÃO2%0.8%
- OthersRafael Demuner <1%
SimulationsGoiásGO
Based on 20 polls · runoff 60%
predictionswinsvote
- Daniel VilelaMDB87%49.3%
- Luis Cesar BuenoPT5%12.9%
- Marconi PerilloPSDB4%18.9%
- Wilder MoraisPL4%18.4%
- OthersLuciana Amorim <1%
SimulationsMaranhãoMA
Based on 21 polls · runoff 73%
predictionswinsvote
- Orleans BrandãoMDB65%45.7%
- Eduardo BraidePSD28%33.8%
- Roberto RochaPRTB5%7.6%
- André LuisMISSÃO2%0.6%
- OthersFelipe Camarão <1% · Saulo Arcangeli <1% · Reginaldo Lima <1% · Dimas Cassimiro <1%
SimulationsMinas GeraisMG
Based on 13 polls · runoff 99%
predictionswinsvote
- CleitinhoREPUBLICANOS35%28.9%
- Patrus AnaniasPT19%21.1%
- Mateus SimõesPSD17%16.8%
- Flávio RoscoePL16%16.2%
- OthersAlexandre Kalil 7% · Gabriel 4% · Ben Mendes 2% · Professor Túlio Lopes <1% · Rafael Duda <1% · Henrique Áreas <1% · Indira Xavier <1%
SimulationsMato Grosso do SulMS
Based on 17 polls · runoff 10%
predictionswinsvote
- Eduardo RiedelPP96%62.4%
- Fábio TradPT2%20.5%
- OthersDelcidio Amaral <1% · Jeferson Bezerra <1% · Economista Renato Gomes <1% · João Henrique Catan <1% · Lucien Rezende <1% · Daniel Lemes <1%
SimulationsMato GrossoMT
Based on 14 polls · runoff 86%
predictionswinsvote
- Otaviano PivettaREPUBLICANOS60%41.7%
- Wellington FagundesPL29%35.8%
- Doutora NatashaPSD9%21.8%
- Rafaell MilasMISSÃO2%0.5%
- OthersMauricio Coelho <1%
SimulationsParáPA
Based on 22 polls · runoff 27%
predictionswinsvote
- Hana GhassanMDB78%53.7%
- Dr. DanielPODEMOS21%39.9%
- OthersAraceli <1% · José Moita <1% · Gal Leite <1%
SimulationsParaíbaPB
Based on 13 polls · runoff 15%
predictionswinsvote
- Lucas RibeiroPP95%59.0%
- Cícero LucenaMDB3%21.2%
- Efraim FilhoPL2%18.1%
- OthersPedro Coutinho <1% · Yuri Ezequiel <1% · Camilo Duarte <1%
SimulationsPernambucoPE
Based on 41 polls · runoff 36%
predictionswinsvote
- Raquel LyraPSD57%47.9%
- João CamposPSB40%45.7%
- Ivan MoraesPSOL2%3.8%
- OthersProfessor Jeremias 1% · Renan <1% · Victor Assis <1% · Guilherme Fonseca <1% · Professora Camila <1%
SimulationsPiauíPI
Based on 14 polls · runoff 7%
predictionswinsvote
- Rafael FontelesPT96%66.1%
- Joel RodriguesPP2%25.9%
- OthersRavenna <1% · Professor Jurity <1% · Gustavo <1% · Elizeu Aguiar <1% · Dra. Lúcia Santos <1% · Professor Gisvaldo <1% · Santiago Belizário <1% · Geraldo Carvalho <1%
SimulationsParanáPR
Based on 32 polls · runoff 92%
predictionswinsvote
- Sergio MoroPL50%40.0%
- Sandro AlexPSD32%33.3%
- Requião FilhoPDT15%23.9%
- Alexandre SalomãoMOBILIZA2%0.5%
- OthersLuiz França 1% · Adriano Funileiro <1% · Tayná Miessa <1% · Samuel de Mattos <1%
SimulationsRio de JaneiroRJ
Based on 23 polls · runoff 62%
predictionswinsvote
- Eduardo PaesPSD76%49.2%
- Douglas RuasPL15%28.5%
- William SiriPSOL3%7.0%
- Anthony GarotinhoREPUBLICANOS3%11.1%
- OthersAndré Marinho 2% · Coronel Busnello 1% · Cyro Garcia <1% · Juliete <1% · Luan Monteiro <1%
SimulationsRio Grande do NorteRN
Based on 35 polls · runoff 83%
predictionswinsvote
- Allyson BezerraUNIÃO63%44.3%
- Álvaro DiasPL18%27.0%
- Cadu XavierPT14%23.8%
- Professor Roberio PaulinoPSOL3%2.7%
- OthersCarlos Jararaca 2% · Rodrigo Bolsonaro <1% · Arinalda do MLB <1% · Dário Barbosa <1% · Henrique Lyra <1%
SimulationsRondôniaRO
Based on 6 polls · runoff 97%
predictionswinsvote
- Marcos RogérioPL46%35.6%
- Hildon ChavesUNIÃO21%24.2%
- Adailton FuriaPSD21%24.6%
- Expedito NettoPT5%9.5%
- OthersPedro Abib 4% · Samuel Costa 3%
SimulationsRoraimaRR
Based on 6 polls · runoff 7%
predictionswinsvote
- Arthur HenriquePL96%56.0%
- Soldado SampaioREPUBLICANOS4%39.0%
- OthersFarah Mesquita <1% · Clébio Genuíno <1%
SimulationsRio Grande do SulRS
Based on 15 polls · runoff 83%
predictionswinsvote
- Luciano ZuccoPL60%43.7%
- Juliana BrizolaPDT28%32.8%
- Gabriel SouzaMDB8%14.7%
- Marcelo MaranataPSDB4%7.9%
- OthersPriscila Voigt <1% · Rejane de Oliveira <1% · Cesar Pontes <1%
SimulationsSanta CatarinaSC
Based on 15 polls · runoff 19%
predictionswinsvote
- Jorginho MelloPL94%57.3%
- João RodriguesPSD3%22.1%
- OthersRalf Zimmer 1% · Gelson Merísio 1% · Marcelo Brigadeiro <1% · Bruno Pedreiro <1% · Laís Chaud <1%
SimulationsSergipeSE
Based on 23 polls · runoff 50%
predictionswinsvote
- Fábio MitidieriPSD82%51.1%
- Valmir de FrancisquinhoREPUBLICANOS14%33.3%
- Ricardo MarquesPL4%11.0%
- OthersTaty <1% · Dr. Helton <1% · Emanuel Cacho <1%
SimulationsSão PauloSP
Based on 33 polls · runoff 6%
predictionswinsvote
- Tarcísio de FreitasREPUBLICANOS91%60.2%
- Fernando HaddadPT9%37.1%
- OthersPolicial Edjane <1% · Izadora Dias <1% · Vera Lúcia <1% · Carlos Machado <1% · Vivian Mendes <1%
SimulationsTocantinsTO
Based on 21 polls · runoff 66%
predictionswinsvote
- Professora DorinhaUNIÃO64%48.0%
- Vicentinho JúniorPSDB25%34.2%
- Laurez MoreiraPSD7%13.9%
- Subtenente Luiz CarlosDEMOCRATA2%0.7%
- OthersDu Pereira 2% · Ataídes Oliveira <1% · Prof Witer Naves <1%
Each square is one simulated election, coloured by who won it. Rounded to 100 simulations.
Runoff
Projections for the first-round vote and the chance of each runoff match-up. This probabilistic model is not an opinion poll.
AcreAC
90%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Mailza AssisPP40.2%30.3–50.7
- Alan RickREPUBLICANOS29.9%21.6–39.1
- Tião BocalomPSDB15.7%9.4–24.6
- Thor DantasPSB13.3%3.9–25.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Mailza AssisPP92%
- Alan RickREPUBLICANOS76%
- Thor DantasPSB17%
Most likely match-ups
- Rick × Mailza69%
- Mailza × Dantas12%
- Bocalom × Mailza9%
AlagoasAL
8%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- JHCPSDB51.1%43.2–58.9
- Renan FilhoMDB47.6%39.8–55.5
- Lenilda LunaUP0.6%0.0–1.0
- Márcio JamboDEMOCRATA0.6%0.0–1.0
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- JHCPSDB92%
- Renan FilhoMDB88%
- Márcio JamboDEMOCRATA18%
Most likely match-ups
- JHC × Renan80%
- Jambo × JHC11%
- Jambo × Renan7%
AmazonasAM
94%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Omar AzizPSD38.2%27.8–48.9
- Roberto CidadeUNIÃO22.5%14.1–33.0
- David AlmeidaAVANTE17.3%9.6–26.6
- Maria do CarmoPL17.0%10.9–26.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Omar AzizPSD94%
- Roberto CidadeUNIÃO47%
- David AlmeidaAVANTE28%
Most likely match-ups
- Aziz × Cidade42%
- Aziz × Almeida25%
- Aziz × Carmo21%
AmapáAP
23%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Dr. FurlanPSD52.5%43.5–61.2
- Clécio LuísUNIÃO43.0%33.9–51.8
- Marcos ReateguiDC3.7%0.5–8.5
- Jairo PalhetaPCO0.5%0.0–0.9
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Dr. FurlanPSD>99%
- Clécio LuísUNIÃO90%
Most likely match-ups
- Furlan × Clécio90%
BahiaBA
20%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- ACM NetoUNIÃO48.6%39.9–57.3
- Jerônimo RodriguesPT48.0%39.1–56.6
- Ronaldo MansurPSOL2.0%0.0–4.6
- Ariel CapistranoDC0.8%0.0–1.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- ACM NetoUNIÃO96%
- Jerônimo RodriguesPT90%
Most likely match-ups
- ACM Neto × Jerônimo86%
CearáCE
7%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Elmano de FreitasPT56.6%47.8–65.4
- Ciro GomesPSDB41.6%32.9–50.4
- Delegado HuggoMISSÃO0.5%0.0–0.8
- Serley LealUP0.4%0.0–0.7
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Elmano de FreitasPT98%
- Ciro GomesPSDB80%
- Delegado HuggoMISSÃO13%
Most likely match-ups
- Ciro × Elmano78%
- Delegado Huggo × Elmano12%
- Ciro × Delegado Huggo2%
Distrito FederalDF
63%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Celina LeãoPP48.6%37.9–59.3
- Leandro GrassPT20.5%12.3–29.4
- José Roberto ArrudaPSD17.0%11.2–25.7
- CappelliPSB4.9%0.0–13.5
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Celina LeãoPP99%
- Leandro GrassPT51%
- José Roberto ArrudaPSD29%
Most likely match-ups
- Grass × Celina50%
- Arruda × Celina28%
Espírito SantoES
60%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Ricardo FerraçoMDB48.4%38.2–58.9
- Lorenzo PazoliniREPUBLICANOS36.4%27.2–45.9
- Helder SalomãoPT14.1%7.2–23.8
- Breno BarcelosMISSÃO0.8%0.0–1.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Ricardo FerraçoMDB96%
- Lorenzo PazoliniREPUBLICANOS91%
Most likely match-ups
- Ferraço × Pazolini87%
GoiásGO
60%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Daniel VilelaMDB49.3%39.7–59.4
- Marconi PerilloPSDB18.9%12.2–26.9
- Wilder MoraisPL18.4%11.5–26.4
- Luis Cesar BuenoPT12.9%4.0–24.4
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Daniel VilelaMDB>99%
- Marconi PerilloPSDB36%
- Wilder MoraisPL33%
Most likely match-ups
- Vilela × Perillo36%
- Vilela × Morais33%
- Vilela × Bueno30%
MaranhãoMA
73%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Orleans BrandãoMDB45.7%35.3–55.9
- Eduardo BraidePSD33.8%26.6–42.8
- Felipe CamarãoPT10.8%5.8–16.7
- Roberto RochaPRTB7.6%0.2–18.9
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Orleans BrandãoMDB97%
- Eduardo BraidePSD91%
Most likely match-ups
- Brandão × Braide88%
Minas GeraisMG
99%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- CleitinhoREPUBLICANOS28.9%22.7–38.1
- Patrus AnaniasPT21.1%12.8–30.2
- Mateus SimõesPSD16.8%7.7–26.5
- Flávio RoscoePL16.2%5.2–28.5
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- CleitinhoREPUBLICANOS91%
- Patrus AnaniasPT39%
- Flávio RoscoePL28%
Most likely match-ups
- Patrus × Cleitinho33%
- Roscoe × Cleitinho23%
- Simões × Cleitinho21%
Mato Grosso do SulMS
10%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Eduardo RiedelPP62.4%51.6–72.9
- Fábio TradPT20.5%12.7–29.2
- Delcidio AmaralPRD7.0%0.3–17.4
- João Henrique CatanNOVO6.6%4.9–8.6
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Eduardo RiedelPP100%
- Fábio TradPT47%
- Delcidio AmaralPRD24%
Most likely match-ups
- Riedel × Trad47%
- Riedel × Amaral23%
Mato GrossoMT
86%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Otaviano PivettaREPUBLICANOS41.7%32.3–51.2
- Wellington FagundesPL35.8%26.9–44.6
- Doutora NatashaPSD21.8%13.0–30.9
- Rafaell MilasMISSÃO0.5%0.0–0.9
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Otaviano PivettaREPUBLICANOS90%
- Wellington FagundesPL86%
- Doutora NatashaPSD21%
Most likely match-ups
- Pivetta × Fagundes76%
- Natasha × Pivetta12%
- Natasha × Fagundes9%
ParáPA
27%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Hana GhassanMDB53.7%43.9–63.5
- Dr. DanielPODEMOS39.9%30.9–48.8
- AraceliPSOL5.7%0.0–15.4
- Gal LeiteUP0.4%0.0–0.7
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Hana GhassanMDB>99%
- Dr. DanielPODEMOS95%
Most likely match-ups
- Dr. Daniel × Ghassan95%
ParaíbaPB
15%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Lucas RibeiroPP59.0%49.6–68.6
- Cícero LucenaMDB21.2%13.3–29.6
- Efraim FilhoPL18.1%11.7–26.6
- Pedro CoutinhoDC0.8%0.0–1.2
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Lucas RibeiroPP100%
- Cícero LucenaMDB51%
- Efraim FilhoPL36%
Most likely match-ups
- Lucena × Ribeiro51%
- Efraim × Ribeiro36%
PernambucoPE
36%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Raquel LyraPSD47.9%38.7–56.8
- João CamposPSB45.7%36.6–54.4
- Ivan MoraesPSOL3.8%0.8–8.0
- RenanMISSÃO1.0%0.0–2.0
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Raquel LyraPSD95%
- João CamposPSB93%
Most likely match-ups
- Raquel × Campos88%
PiauíPI
7%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Rafael FontelesPT66.1%56.1–75.7
- Joel RodriguesPP25.9%17.3–34.9
- Elizeu AguiarNOVO2.0%0.0–4.7
- Dra. Lúcia SantosPSDB1.7%0.0–4.1
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Rafael FontelesPT100%
- Joel RodriguesPP39%
- RavennaDEMOCRATA12%
Most likely match-ups
- Fonteles × Rodrigues39%
- Fonteles × Ravenna12%
- Fonteles × Professor Jurity12%
ParanáPR
92%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Sergio MoroPL40.0%31.2–49.4
- Sandro AlexPSD33.3%24.0–42.9
- Requião FilhoPDT23.9%15.6–33.1
- Luiz FrançaMISSÃO1.3%0.0–3.1
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Sergio MoroPL92%
- Sandro AlexPSD74%
- Requião FilhoPDT30%
Most likely match-ups
- Moro × Sandro66%
- Moro × Requião22%
- Requião × Sandro7%
Rio de JaneiroRJ
62%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Eduardo PaesPSD49.2%39.7–58.8
- Douglas RuasPL28.5%20.6–37.1
- Anthony GarotinhoREPUBLICANOS11.1%5.8–19.2
- William SiriPSOL7.0%0.6–17.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Eduardo PaesPSD>99%
- Douglas RuasPL77%
Most likely match-ups
- Ruas × Paes76%
Rio Grande do NorteRN
83%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Allyson BezerraUNIÃO44.3%34.9–53.9
- Álvaro DiasPL27.0%18.3–36.2
- Cadu XavierPT23.8%15.5–33.0
- Professor Roberio PaulinoPSOL2.7%0.3–5.6
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Allyson BezerraUNIÃO96%
- Álvaro DiasPL56%
- Cadu XavierPT40%
Most likely match-ups
- Dias × Allyson52%
- Cadu × Allyson36%
- Cadu × Dias3%
RondôniaRO
97%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Marcos RogérioPL35.6%25.9–45.8
- Adailton FuriaPSD24.6%15.8–34.2
- Hildon ChavesUNIÃO24.2%14.9–34.1
- Expedito NettoPT9.5%3.5–18.8
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Marcos RogérioPL88%
- Adailton FuriaPSD49%
- Hildon ChavesUNIÃO47%
Most likely match-ups
- Furia × Rogério39%
- Rogério × Chaves37%
- Furia × Chaves8%
RoraimaRR
7%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Arthur HenriquePL56.0%52.0–59.8
- Soldado SampaioREPUBLICANOS39.0%35.1–42.9
- Rosi AiresPSOL2.9%0.0–7.9
- Farah MesquitaSOLIDARIEDADE1.8%0.3–3.6
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Arthur HenriquePL100%
- Soldado SampaioREPUBLICANOS93%
Most likely match-ups
- Arthur × Sampaio93%
Rio Grande do SulRS
83%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Luciano ZuccoPL43.7%34.1–53.4
- Juliana BrizolaPDT32.8%24.0–41.8
- Gabriel SouzaMDB14.7%6.7–24.4
- Marcelo MaranataPSDB7.9%0.7–18.8
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Luciano ZuccoPL96%
- Juliana BrizolaPDT83%
- Gabriel SouzaMDB13%
Most likely match-ups
- Zucco × Brizola79%
- Gabriel × Zucco10%
- Gabriel × Brizola3%
Santa CatarinaSC
19%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Jorginho MelloPL57.3%48.2–66.4
- João RodriguesPSD22.1%14.2–30.4
- Gelson MerísioPSB15.1%7.8–23.2
- Ralf ZimmerPRD3.6%0.9–7.1
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Jorginho MelloPL100%
- João RodriguesPSD58%
- Gelson MerísioPSB20%
Most likely match-ups
- Jorginho × Rodrigues59%
- Jorginho × Merísio20%
- Jorginho × Zimmer13%
SergipeSE
50%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Fábio MitidieriPSD51.1%41.2–60.9
- Valmir de FrancisquinhoREPUBLICANOS33.3%25.6–41.6
- Ricardo MarquesPL11.0%3.1–22.5
- Dr. HeltonPSOL2.6%0.4–5.3
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Fábio MitidieriPSD>99%
- Valmir de FrancisquinhoREPUBLICANOS83%
- Ricardo MarquesPL13%
Most likely match-ups
- Valmir × Mitidieri82%
- Mitidieri × Marques13%
São PauloSP
6%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Tarcísio de FreitasREPUBLICANOS60.2%52.1–68.4
- Fernando HaddadPT37.1%29.1–44.9
- Policial EdjaneAGIR1.0%0.0–2.4
- Izadora DiasPCO0.5%0.0–0.8
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Tarcísio de FreitasREPUBLICANOS100%
- Fernando HaddadPT81%
- Policial EdjaneAGIR10%
Most likely match-ups
- Tarcísio × Haddad81%
- Tarcísio × Policial Edjane10%
TocantinsTO
66%chance of a runoff
First-round projection
- Professora DorinhaUNIÃO48.0%38.2–57.9
- Vicentinho JúniorPSDB34.2%25.6–43.4
- Laurez MoreiraPSD13.9%5.5–24.0
- Prof Witer NavesPSOL1.2%0.0–3.1
80% interval
If there is a runoff
Who reaches it
- Professora DorinhaUNIÃO96%
- Vicentinho JúniorPSDB83%
- Laurez MoreiraPSD13%
Most likely match-ups
- Vicentinho × Dorinha79%
- Laurez × Dorinha11%
- Laurez × Vicentinho2%
State by state
Projected first-round vote. The bar is the central estimate; the line is the confidence interval (80%).
North
- Omar AzizPSD38.2%27.8–48.9
- Roberto CidadeUNIÃO22.5%14.1–33.0
- David AlmeidaAVANTE17.3%9.6–26.6
+4 more candidates
- Dr. FurlanPSD52.5%43.5–61.2
- Clécio LuísUNIÃO43.0%33.9–51.8
- Marcos ReateguiDC3.7%0.5–8.5
+2 more candidates
- Hana GhassanMDB53.7%43.9–63.5
- Dr. DanielPODEMOS39.9%30.9–48.8
- AraceliPSOL5.7%0.0–15.4
+2 more candidates
- Marcos RogérioPL35.6%25.9–45.8
- Adailton FuriaPSD24.6%15.8–34.2
- Hildon ChavesUNIÃO24.2%14.9–34.1
+3 more candidates
- Arthur HenriquePL56.0%52.0–59.8
- Soldado SampaioREPUBLICANOS39.0%35.1–42.9
- Rosi AiresPSOL2.9%0.0–7.9
+2 more candidates
- Professora DorinhaUNIÃO48.0%38.2–57.9
- Vicentinho JúniorPSDB34.2%25.6–43.4
- Laurez MoreiraPSD13.9%5.5–24.0
+4 more candidates
Northeast
- JHCPSDB51.1%43.2–58.9
- Renan FilhoMDB47.6%39.8–55.5
- Lenilda LunaUP0.6%0.0–1.0
+1 more candidate
- ACM NetoUNIÃO48.6%39.9–57.3
- Jerônimo RodriguesPT48.0%39.1–56.6
- Ronaldo MansurPSOL2.0%0.0–4.6
+3 more candidates
- Elmano de FreitasPT56.6%47.8–65.4
- Ciro GomesPSDB41.6%32.9–50.4
- Delegado HuggoMISSÃO0.5%0.0–0.8
+4 more candidates
- Orleans BrandãoMDB45.7%35.3–55.9
- Eduardo BraidePSD33.8%26.6–42.8
- Felipe CamarãoPT10.8%5.8–16.7
+5 more candidates
- Lucas RibeiroPP59.0%49.6–68.6
- Cícero LucenaMDB21.2%13.3–29.6
- Efraim FilhoPL18.1%11.7–26.6
+3 more candidates
- Raquel LyraPSD47.9%38.7–56.8
- João CamposPSB45.7%36.6–54.4
- Ivan MoraesPSOL3.8%0.8–8.0
+5 more candidates
- Rafael FontelesPT66.1%56.1–75.7
- Joel RodriguesPP25.9%17.3–34.9
- Elizeu AguiarNOVO2.0%0.0–4.7
+8 more candidates
- Allyson BezerraUNIÃO44.3%34.9–53.9
- Álvaro DiasPL27.0%18.3–36.2
- Cadu XavierPT23.8%15.5–33.0
+6 more candidates
- Fábio MitidieriPSD51.1%41.2–60.9
- Valmir de FrancisquinhoREPUBLICANOS33.3%25.6–41.6
- Ricardo MarquesPL11.0%3.1–22.5
+3 more candidates
Central-West
- Celina LeãoPP48.6%37.9–59.3
- Leandro GrassPT20.5%12.3–29.4
- José Roberto ArrudaPSD17.0%11.2–25.7
+7 more candidates
- Daniel VilelaMDB49.3%39.7–59.4
- Marconi PerilloPSDB18.9%12.2–26.9
- Wilder MoraisPL18.4%11.5–26.4
+3 more candidates
- Eduardo RiedelPP62.4%51.6–72.9
- Fábio TradPT20.5%12.7–29.2
- Delcidio AmaralPRD7.0%0.3–17.4
+5 more candidates
- Otaviano PivettaREPUBLICANOS41.7%32.3–51.2
- Wellington FagundesPL35.8%26.9–44.6
- Doutora NatashaPSD21.8%13.0–30.9
+2 more candidates
Southeast
- Ricardo FerraçoMDB48.4%38.2–58.9
- Lorenzo PazoliniREPUBLICANOS36.4%27.2–45.9
- Helder SalomãoPT14.1%7.2–23.8
+2 more candidates
- CleitinhoREPUBLICANOS28.9%22.7–38.1
- Patrus AnaniasPT21.1%12.8–30.2
- Mateus SimõesPSD16.8%7.7–26.5
+8 more candidates
- Eduardo PaesPSD49.2%39.7–58.8
- Douglas RuasPL28.5%20.6–37.1
- Anthony GarotinhoREPUBLICANOS11.1%5.8–19.2
+6 more candidates
- Tarcísio de FreitasREPUBLICANOS60.2%52.1–68.4
- Fernando HaddadPT37.1%29.1–44.9
- Policial EdjaneAGIR1.0%0.0–2.4
+4 more candidates
South
- Sergio MoroPL40.0%31.2–49.4
- Sandro AlexPSD33.3%24.0–42.9
- Requião FilhoPDT23.9%15.6–33.1
+5 more candidates
- Luciano ZuccoPL43.7%34.1–53.4
- Juliana BrizolaPDT32.8%24.0–41.8
- Gabriel SouzaMDB14.7%6.7–24.4
+4 more candidates
- Jorginho MelloPL57.3%48.2–66.4
- João RodriguesPSD22.1%14.2–30.4
- Gelson MerísioPSB15.1%7.8–23.2
+5 more candidates
How the model works
The model simulates each of the 27 state races tens of thousands of times. Each simulation starts from every candidacy's political structure within its own state, corrects that projection with the state polls we aggregate, adjusts uncertainty using the error polls have historically shown at this point in the electoral calendar and resolves the runoff when no candidate passes 50% of the valid votes. See the methodology.
What this model is not
- It does not project states without enough polls.
- It does not assume polls always err in the same direction.
- It is not an election poll.