Model log

A record of changes and commentary on the Plano Político 2026 Governors Model.

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23 Sep 2026 · 520 polls (+5: AL, DF, PB, RJ, SC)

PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 88% → 95%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 7% → 2%, Efraim Filho (PL) 4% → 2%
SC: Jorginho Mello (PL) 90% → 94%, João Rodrigues (PSD) 6% → 3%, Gelson Merísio (PSB) 2% → 1%
DF: Celina Leão (PP) 84% → 82%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 4% → 5%

2 more states

AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 39% → 41%, JHC (PSDB) 59% → 57%
RJ: Anthony Garotinho (REPUBLICANOS) 4% → 2%, Eduardo Paes (PSD) 75% → 76%

generated automatically

22 Sep 2026 · 515 polls (+15: AL, AP, CE, GO, MA, MG, MS, PE, PR, RN, RS, SE, SP, TO)

MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 70% → 65%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 23% → 28%, Roberto Rocha (PRTB) 5% → 4%
RS: Luciano Zucco (PL) 55% → 60%, Juliana Brizola (PDT) 32% → 28%
MG: Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 32% → 35%, Mateus Simões (PSD) 18% → 17%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 20% → 19%, Flávio Roscoe (PL) 17% → 16%

11 more states

AL: JHC (PSDB) 57% → 59%, Renan Filho (MDB) 42% → 39%
GO: Daniel Vilela (MDB) 85% → 87%, Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 5% → 4%
PR: Sandro Alex (PSD) 31% → 32%, Sergio Moro (PL) 51% → 50%, Requião Filho (PDT) 15% → 14%
CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 76% → 77%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 23% → 22%
RN: Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 64% → 62%, Cadu Xavier (PT) 13% → 14%
SE: Valmir de Francisquinho (REPUBLICANOS) 12% → 13%, Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 82% → 81%
SP: Tarcísio de Freitas (REPUBLICANOS) 90% → 91%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 9% → 8%
TO: Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 65% → 64%, Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 24% → 25%
AP: Clécio Luís (UNIÃO) 32% → 33%, Dr. Furlan (PSD) 66% → 65%
PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 56% → 57%, João Campos (PSB) 39% → 40%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 97% → 96%

generated automatically

21 Sep 2026 · 500 polls (+7: AC, AL, AM, BA, MG, PI, SP)

AM: Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO) 21% → 23%, Omar Aziz (PSD) 52% → 50%, Maria do Carmo (PL) 11% → 10%, Cabo Daciolo (MOBILIZA) 3% → 4%
AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 43% → 42%, JHC (PSDB) 55% → 57%
MG: Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 31% → 32%, Mateus Simões (PSD) 19% → 18%, Alexandre Kalil (PDT) 8% → 7%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 19% → 20%

3 more states

AC: Tião Bocalom (PSDB) 6% → 5%
PI: Joel Rodrigues (PP) 2% → 1%
BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 47% → 48%

generated automatically

20 Sep 2026 · 493 polls (+54: AC, AL, AM, AP, BA, DF, ES, MA, MG, MS, MT, PA, PB, PE, PI, PR, RN, RO, RR, SE, TO)

MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 53% → 70%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 32% → 23%, Felipe Camarão (PT) 9% → <1%, Roberto Rocha (PRTB) 4% → 5%
AP: Clécio Luís (UNIÃO) 39% → 32%, Dr. Furlan (PSD) 59% → 66%
AC: Mailza Assis (PP) 68% → 64%, Alan Rick (REPUBLICANOS) 19% → 21%, Tião Bocalom (PSDB) 5% → 6%, Thor Dantas (PSB) 7% → 8%

17 more states

TO: Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 69% → 65%, Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 21% → 24%
MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 64% → 60%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 27% → 29%, Doutora Natasha (PSD) 8% → 9%
AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 47% → 43%, JHC (PSDB) 51% → 55%
RO: Hildon Chaves (UNIÃO) 18% → 21%, Marcos Rogério (PL) 47% → 46%, Expedito Netto (PT) 6% → 5%
RN: Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 61% → 64%, Álvaro Dias (PL) 19% → 18%, Cadu Xavier (PT) 14% → 13%
DF: Celina Leão (PP) 82% → 84%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 5% → 4%, Leandro Grass (PT) 7% → 6%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 94% → 97%, Fábio Trad (PT) 2% → 1%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 53% → 51%, Sandro Alex (PSD) 29% → 31%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 86% → 88%, Efraim Filho (PL) 5% → 4%
AM: Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO) 20% → 21%
MG: Patrus Ananias (PT) 21% → 19%, Mateus Simões (PSD) 17% → 19%, Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 30% → 31%
RR: Arthur Henrique (PL) 94% → 96%, Soldado Sampaio (REPUBLICANOS) 5% → 4%
SE: Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 83% → 82%, Valmir de Francisquinho (REPUBLICANOS) 11% → 12%, Ricardo Marques (PL) 4% → 3%
PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 95% → 96%
PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 57% → 56%
BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 48% → 47%
ES: Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 72% → 71%, Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 23% → 24%

generated automatically

19 Sep 2026 · 439 polls (+6: AC, CE, MS, PE, RS)

AC: Mailza Assis (PP) 57% → 68%, Alan Rick (REPUBLICANOS) 26% → 19%, Tião Bocalom (PSDB) 6% → 5%, Thor Dantas (PSB) 8% → 7%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 93% → 94%, Fábio Trad (PT) 3% → 2%
CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 77% → 76%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 22% → 23%

2 more states

PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 58% → 57%, João Campos (PSB) 38% → 39%
RS: Juliana Brizola (PDT) 31% → 32%, Gabriel Souza (MDB) 9% → 8%

generated automatically

18 Sep 20261 day · 433 polls (+4)generated automatically

18 Sep 2026 · 433 polls (+4: CE, MT, PR) · MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 56% → 64%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 33% → 27%, Doutora Natasha (PSD) 9% → 8% · CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 76% → 77%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 23% → 22% · PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 52% → 53%

17 Sep 2026 · 429 polls (+7: PE, PI, PR, SC, TO)

SC: Jorginho Mello (PL) 87% → 90%, João Rodrigues (PSD) 7% → 6%, Gelson Merísio (PSB) 3% → 2%
PR: Sandro Alex (PSD) 32% → 29%, Sergio Moro (PL) 50% → 52%
TO: Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 23% → 21%, Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 67% → 69%, Laurez Moreira (PSD) 5% → 6%

1 more state

PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 59% → 58%

generated automatically

16 Sep 20261 day · 422 polls (+4)generated automatically

16 Sep 2026 · 422 polls (+4: BA, GO, MA, PE) · BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 41% → 48%, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) 57% → 50% · MA: Eduardo Braide (PSD) 27% → 32%, Orleans Brandão (MDB) 57% → 53%, Felipe Camarão (PT) 10% → 9%, Roberto Rocha (PRTB) 5% → 4% · GO: Daniel Vilela (MDB) 84% → 85%, Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 6% → 5%

15 Sep 2026 · 418 polls (+6: AL, GO, PA, PE, RN, TO)

AL: JHC (PSDB) 55% → 51%, Renan Filho (MDB) 44% → 47%
TO: Laurez Moreira (PSD) 8% → 5%, Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 65% → 67%, Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 22% → 23%
PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 61% → 59%, João Campos (PSB) 36% → 37%

3 more states

RN: Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 60% → 61%, Álvaro Dias (PL) 20% → 19%, Cadu Xavier (PT) 15% → 14%
PA: Hana Ghassan (MDB) 77% → 78%, Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 22% → 21%
GO: Luis Cesar Bueno (PT) 6% → 5%

generated automatically

13 Sep 2026 – 14 Sep 20262 days · 412 polls (+5)generated automatically

14 Sep 2026 · 412 polls (+3: RJ, SC, SP) · RJ: Douglas Ruas (PL) 14% → 15%, Eduardo Paes (PSD) 76% → 75% · SC: Jorginho Mello (PL) 88% → 87%
13 Sep 2026 · 409 polls (+2: DF, RN) · DF: Celina Leão (PP) 81% → 82%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 6% → 5% · RN: Cadu Xavier (PT) 14% → 15%, Álvaro Dias (PL) 21% → 20%, Professor Roberio Paulino (PSOL) 3% → 2%, Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 59% → 60%

12 Sep 2026 · 407 polls (+13: AP, RN, RR, SE)

RR: Arthur Henrique (PL) 41% → 94%, Soldado Sampaio (REPUBLICANOS) 59% → 5%
AP: Dr. Furlan (PSD) 58% → 59%, Clécio Luís (UNIÃO) 40% → 39%
SE: Valmir de Francisquinho (REPUBLICANOS) 10% → 11%, Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 84% → 83%

1 more state

RN: Professor Roberio Paulino (PSOL) 2% → 3%

generated automatically

11 Sep 2026 · 394 polls (+12: AM, DF, GO, MG, PA, PE, RJ, SC, SP)

MG: Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 28% → 30%, Mateus Simões (PSD) 19% → 17%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 22% → 21%
PA: Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 23% → 22%, Hana Ghassan (MDB) 76% → 77%
DF: Celina Leão (PP) 80% → 81%, Leandro Grass (PT) 8% → 7%

4 more states

RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 77% → 76%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 13% → 14%
AM: Maria do Carmo (PL) 10% → 11%, Omar Aziz (PSD) 53% → 52%, Cabo Daciolo (MOBILIZA) 4% → 3%
SC: Gelson Merísio (PSB) 2% → 3%
GO: Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 5% → 6%, Wilder Morais (PL) 5% → 4%, Luis Cesar Bueno (PT) 5% → 6%

generated automatically

10 Sep 2026 · 382 polls (+7: AL, MA, MS, PB, PR, RJ)

MA: Felipe Camarão (PT) 1% → 10%, Orleans Brandão (MDB) 65% → 57%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 46% → 50%, Sandro Alex (PSD) 35% → 32%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 83% → 86%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 9% → 7%, Efraim Filho (PL) 6% → 5%

3 more states

MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 94% → 93%, Fábio Trad (PT) 2% → 3%
RJ: Douglas Ruas (PL) 12% → 13%
AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 43% → 44%

generated automatically

9 Sep 20261 day · 375 polls (+4)generated automatically

9 Sep 2026 · 375 polls (+4: BA, DF, ES, MT) · MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 49% → 56%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 39% → 33%, Doutora Natasha (PSD) 10% → 9% · ES: Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 69% → 72%, Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 26% → 23%, Helder Salomão (PT) 4% → 3% · BA: Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) 55% → 57%, ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 42% → 41% · DF: Leandro Grass (PT) 7% → 8%, Celina Leão (PP) 79% → 80%

8 Sep 2026 · 371 polls (+13: BA, CE, DF, GO, MG, PA, PE, RJ, SP)

MG: Mateus Simões (PSD) 22% → 19%, Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 26% → 28%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 20% → 22%, Alexandre Kalil (PDT) 9% → 8%
CE: Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 24% → 23%, Elmano de Freitas (PT) 75% → 76%
GO: Daniel Vilela (MDB) 83% → 84%, Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 6% → 5%, Luis Cesar Bueno (PT) 6% → 5%

5 more states

RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 76% → 77%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 13% → 12%
SP: Fernando Haddad (PT) 10% → 9%, Tarcísio de Freitas (REPUBLICANOS) 89% → 90%
PE: João Campos (PSB) 37% → 36%, Raquel Lyra (PSD) 60% → 61%
BA: Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) 56% → 55%
DF: Celina Leão (PP) 80% → 79%

generated automatically

5 Sep 2026 – 7 Sep 20263 days · 358 polls (+7) · 1 day with no change to the published figuregenerated automatically

7 Sep 2026 · 358 polls (+3: AC, DF) · DF: Celina Leão (PP) 78% → 80%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 7% → 6%, Leandro Grass (PT) 8% → 7% · AC: Alan Rick (REPUBLICANOS) 25% → 26%, Tião Bocalom (PSDB) 7% → 6%, Thor Dantas (PSB) 9% → 8%
6 Sep 2026 · 355 polls · no change to the published figure
5 Sep 2026 · 355 polls (+4: AM, PI, SE) · AM: Maria do Carmo (PL) 9% → 10%, Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO) 21% → 20%, Cabo Daciolo (MOBILIZA) 3% → 4% · SE: Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 85% → 84%, Ricardo Marques (PL) 3% → 4% · PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 96% → 95%

4 Sep 2026 · 351 polls (+9: AL, CE, MA, PA, PB, PE, PR, SE)

MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 71% → 65%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 21% → 27%
PA: Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 21% → 23%, Hana Ghassan (MDB) 78% → 76%
CE: Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 22% → 24%, Elmano de Freitas (PT) 77% → 75%

5 more states

PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 58% → 60%, João Campos (PSB) 38% → 37%
PB: Cícero Lucena (MDB) 11% → 9%, Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 82% → 83%, Efraim Filho (PL) 5% → 6%
AL: JHC (PSDB) 57% → 55%, Renan Filho (MDB) 41% → 43%
SE: Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 83% → 85%, Valmir de Francisquinho (REPUBLICANOS) 11% → 10%, Ricardo Marques (PL) 4% → 3%
PR: Requião Filho (PDT) 16% → 15%

generated automatically

3 Sep 2026 · 342 polls (+12: CE, DF, ES, GO, MS, MT, PI, RJ, RS, SP)

RS: Luciano Zucco (PL) 48% → 55%, Juliana Brizola (PDT) 35% → 31%, Gabriel Souza (MDB) 11% → 9%
ES: Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 73% → 69%, Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 22% → 26%, Helder Salomão (PT) 3% → 4%
RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 78% → 76%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 12% → 13%, Anthony Garotinho (REPUBLICANOS) 3% → 4%

7 more states

MT: Wellington Fagundes (PL) 37% → 39%, Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 50% → 49%
DF: Celina Leão (PP) 80% → 78%, Leandro Grass (PT) 6% → 8%
SP: Tarcísio de Freitas (REPUBLICANOS) 90% → 89%, Fernando Haddad (PT) 9% → 10%
GO: Daniel Vilela (MDB) 82% → 83%, Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 7% → 6%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 95% → 94%
CE: Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 21% → 22%
PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 95% → 96%

generated automatically

2 Sep 2026 · 330 polls (+4: AL, RJ, RN)

DF: Celina Leão (PP) 84% → 80%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 3% → 7%
AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 45% → 41%, JHC (PSDB) 53% → 57%
CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 81% → 77%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 18% → 21%

19 more states

MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 48% → 50%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 39% → 37%, Doutora Natasha (PSD) 11% → 10%
ES: Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 25% → 22%, Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 71% → 73%
SP: Fernando Haddad (PT) 7% → 9%, Tarcísio de Freitas (REPUBLICANOS) 92% → 90%
RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 80% → 78%, Douglas Ruas (PL) 10% → 12%
RN: Álvaro Dias (PL) 23% → 21%, Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 58% → 59%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 96% → 95%, Fábio Trad (PT) 1% → 2%
AM: Omar Aziz (PSD) 52% → 53%, Maria do Carmo (PL) 10% → 9%, David Almeida (AVANTE) 12% → 11%
PA: Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 20% → 21%, Hana Ghassan (MDB) 79% → 78%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 83% → 82%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 10% → 11%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 47% → 46%
AP: Clécio Luís (UNIÃO) 41% → 40%, Dr. Furlan (PSD) 57% → 58%
PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 96% → 95%
TO: Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 23% → 22%, Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 64% → 65%
AC: Mailza Assis (PP) 58% → 57%
MG: Alexandre Kalil (PDT) 10% → 9%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 19% → 20%
RO: Samuel Costa (PSB) 2% → 3%, Adailton Furia (PSD) 22% → 21%
BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 43% → 42%
SC: Gelson Merísio (PSB) 3% → 2%
GO: Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 6% → 7%

generated automatically

1 Sep 20261 day · 326 polls (+2)generated automatically

1 Sep 2026 · 326 polls (+2: SP, TO) · TO: Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 65% → 64%, Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 22% → 23%

31 Aug 2026 · 324 polls (+3: AL, DF, ES)

Cleber Rabelo (PSTU) leaves the race in PA
AL: Renan Filho (MDB) 48% → 45%, JHC (PSDB) 51% → 53%
ES: Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 72% → 71%, Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 23% → 25%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 46% → 47%

15 more states

RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 81% → 80%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 97% → 96%
CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 80% → 81%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 19% → 18%
DF: Leandro Grass (PT) 7% → 6%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 2% → 3%
RS: Luciano Zucco (PL) 49% → 48%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 84% → 83%
SC: Gelson Merísio (PSB) 2% → 3%, João Rodrigues (PSD) 8% → 7%
BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 42% → 43%
TO: Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 21% → 22%, Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 66% → 65%
AM: Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO) 22% → 21%
RO: Samuel Costa (PSB) 3% → 2%
MG: Alexandre Kalil (PDT) 9% → 10%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 20% → 19%
GO: Marconi Perillo (PSDB) 7% → 6%
PA: Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 19% → 20%
RR: Arthur Henrique (PL) 40% → 41%

generated automatically

29 Aug 2026 – 30 Aug 20262 days · 321 polls (+6)generated automatically

30 Aug 2026 · 321 polls (+3: DF, MS, PA) · PA: Dr. Daniel (PODEMOS) 18% → 19%, Hana Ghassan (MDB) 80% → 79% · DF: Celina Leão (PP) 83% → 84%, José Roberto Arruda (PSD) 3% → 2% · MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 96% → 97%
29 Aug 2026 · 318 polls (+3: PE, RN, TO) · PE: João Campos (PSB) 39% → 38%, Raquel Lyra (PSD) 57% → 58% · TO: Laurez Moreira (PSD) 9% → 8%

28 Aug 2026 · 315 polls (+31: AC, AM, BA, CE, ES, GO, MA, MG, PA, PB, PE, PI, PR, RJ, RR, SE, TO)

BA: Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) 52% → 56%, ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 46% → 42%
AM: Omar Aziz (PSD) 55% → 52%, Roberto Cidade (UNIÃO) 20% → 22%, David Almeida (AVANTE) 11% → 12%
MG: Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 28% → 26%, Mateus Simões (PSD) 20% → 22%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 19% → 20%, Alexandre Kalil (PDT) 10% → 9%

10 more states

MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 69% → 71%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 23% → 21%
AC: Alan Rick (REPUBLICANOS) 27% → 25%, Mailza Assis (PP) 56% → 58%, Thor Dantas (PSB) 8% → 9%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 85% → 83%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 9% → 10%
PE: João Campos (PSB) 40% → 39%, Raquel Lyra (PSD) 56% → 57%
ES: Lorenzo Pazolini (REPUBLICANOS) 22% → 23%, Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 73% → 72%, Helder Salomão (PT) 4% → 3%
SE: Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 84% → 83%, Valmir de Francisquinho (REPUBLICANOS) 10% → 11%
PR: Sandro Alex (PSD) 36% → 35%, Sergio Moro (PL) 45% → 46%
PA: Hana Ghassan (MDB) 79% → 80%
PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 95% → 96%, Joel Rodrigues (PP) 3% → 2%
RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 82% → 81%

generated automatically

27 Aug 20261 day · 284 polls (+1)generated automatically

27 Aug 2026 · 284 polls (+1: BA) · BA: Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) 54% → 52%, ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 44% → 46%

26 Aug 2026 · 283 polls (+19: AM, AP, DF, MA, MG, MS, MT, PB, PE, RJ, RO, RS, SC, SP, TO)

Ariel Capistrano (DC) enters the race in BA
MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 64% → 69%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 26% → 23%
RS: Luciano Zucco (PL) 52% → 49%, Juliana Brizola (PDT) 32% → 35%, Gabriel Souza (MDB) 10% → 11%
SC: Jorginho Mello (PL) 92% → 88%, Gelson Merísio (PSB) <1% → 2%, João Rodrigues (PSD) 6% → 8%

19 more states

PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 82% → 85%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 10% → 9%, Efraim Filho (PL) 6% → 5%
AP: Dr. Furlan (PSD) 60% → 57%, Clécio Luís (UNIÃO) 39% → 41%
TO: Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) 19% → 21%, Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO) 67% → 66%
RO: Hildon Chaves (UNIÃO) 20% → 18%, Adailton Furia (PSD) 20% → 22%, Marcos Rogério (PL) 48% → 47%, Samuel Costa (PSB) 2% → 3%, Pedro Abib (MDB) 3% → 4%
BA: ACM Neto (UNIÃO) 46% → 44%
MG: Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS) 27% → 28%, Patrus Ananias (PT) 20% → 19%
PI: Rafael Fonteles (PT) 96% → 95%
RJ: Eduardo Paes (PSD) 81% → 82%
PE: Raquel Lyra (PSD) 55% → 56%, João Campos (PSB) 41% → 40%
MS: Eduardo Riedel (PP) 95% → 96%
AM: Maria do Carmo (PL) 9% → 10%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 46% → 45%
GO: Daniel Vilela (MDB) 81% → 82%, Wilder Morais (PL) 6% → 5%
ES: Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) 74% → 73%, Helder Salomão (PT) 3% → 4%
SE: Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) 85% → 84%, Ricardo Marques (PL) 3% → 4%
CE: Elmano de Freitas (PT) 81% → 80%, Ciro Gomes (PSDB) 18% → 19%
RN: Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 57% → 58%
AC: Thor Dantas (PSB) 9% → 8%
MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 47% → 48%

generated automatically

24 Aug 2026 · 264 polls (+10: AL, MA, MT, PB, PR, RN, RS, SC, SP)

MA: Orleans Brandão (MDB) 69% → 64%, Eduardo Braide (PSD) 22% → 26%
AL: JHC (PSDB) 55% → 51%, Renan Filho (MDB) 44% → 48%
MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 44% → 47%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 41% → 39%, Doutora Natasha (PSD) 13% → 11%

4 more states

SC: Jorginho Mello (PL) 89% → 92%, Gelson Merísio (PSB) 2% → <1%, João Rodrigues (PSD) 7% → 6%
RN: Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO) 59% → 57%, Cadu Xavier (PT) 13% → 14%
PB: Lucas Ribeiro (PP) 84% → 82%, Efraim Filho (PL) 5% → 6%, Cícero Lucena (MDB) 11% → 10%
RS: Juliana Brizola (PDT) 33% → 32%

generated automatically

23 Aug 20261 day · 1 day with no change to the published figuregenerated automatically

23 Aug 2026 · 254 polls · no change to the published figure

22 Aug 2026 Record v1.00

First publication

254 polls (+3: MT, PI, PR)

MT: Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS) 41% → 44%, Wellington Fagundes (PL) 43% → 41%
PR: Sergio Moro (PL) 48% → 46%, Sandro Alex (PSD) 34% → 36%
PI: Joel Rodrigues (PP) 2% → 3%

Welcome to Plano Político's 2026 Governors Model. This model is a probabilistic projection of the 27 state governorship races in this year's elections, built from public data on election results and opinion polls. To read more about the model, see the methodology. This page will publish every change to the model as it is updated with new polls, as well as any corrections that prove necessary over the course of the campaign.

As of 22 August, the most likely winner in each state, and their probability, are as follows:

Acre — Mailza Assis (PP), 56%
Alagoas — JHC (PSDB), 55%
Amapá — Dr. Furlan (PSD), 60%
Amazonas — Omar Aziz (PSD), 55%
Bahia — Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), 54%
Ceará — Elmano de Freitas (PT), 81%
Distrito Federal — Celina Leão (PP), 83%
Espírito Santo — Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), 74%
Goiás — Daniel Vilela (MDB), 81%
Maranhão — Orleans Brandão (MDB), 69%
Mato Grosso — Otaviano Pivetta (REPUBLICANOS), 44%
Mato Grosso do Sul — Eduardo Riedel (PP), 95%
Minas Gerais — Cleitinho (REPUBLICANOS), 27%
Pará — Hana Ghassan (MDB), 80%
Paraíba — Lucas Ribeiro (PP), 84%
Paraná — Sergio Moro (PL), 46%
Pernambuco — Raquel Lyra (PSD), 55%
Piauí — Rafael Fonteles (PT), 96%
Rio de Janeiro — Eduardo Paes (PSD), 81%
Rio Grande do Norte — Allyson Bezerra (UNIÃO), 59%
Rio Grande do Sul — Luciano Zucco (PL), 52%
Rondônia — Marcos Rogério (PL), 48%
Santa Catarina — Jorginho Mello (PL), 89%
São Paulo — Tarcísio de Freitas (REPUBLICANOS), 92%
Sergipe — Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), 85%
Tocantins — Professora Dorinha (UNIÃO), 67%

We are not yet publishing probabilities for Roraima, for lack of polls.