2026 Chamber Model
Composition of the Chamber
All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are renewed at this election. The map shows the mean projection by party or federation for 2027, with the option to see today's bench and the one elected in 2022.
- PL97
- União/PP91
- PT/PCdoB/PV83
- PSD50
- REPUBLICANOS50
- MDB34
- PODEMOS24
- PSB21
- PSDB/Cidadania16
- PSOL/Rede13
- PDT9
- NOVO8
- PRD/Solidariedade7
- AVANTE7
- MISSÃO3
- União/PP98
- PL98
- PT/PCdoB/PV81
- PSD48
- REPUBLICANOS42
- MDB38
- PODEMOS27
- PSDB/Cidadania20
- PSB17
- PSOL/Rede16
- PDT9
- PRD/Solidariedade7
- AVANTE5
- NOVO5
- MISSÃO1
- Other parties1
- União/PP105
- PL97
- PT/PCdoB/PV82
- PSD42
- MDB41
- REPUBLICANOS40
- PODEMOS20
- PSDB/Cidadania18
- PDT16
- PSOL/Rede15
- PSB15
- PRD/Solidariedade12
- AVANTE7
- NOVO3
Seats are allocated to parties or federations, each shown in a single colour.
Current bench: Câmara dos Deputados — Dados Abertos, deputados em exercício, retrieved 08/12/2026. Allocation of seats to states: LC 78/1993, kept for 2026 by decision of the Supreme Court.
Seats by party
Central projection by party with a 90% confidence interval
Today's bench, per Chamber of Deputies data
The bench elected in 2022, as seated after the Câmara act of 30/07/2025
- PL97988710897
- União/
PP 10598849991 - PT/
PCdoB/ 8281759283PV - PSD4248445750
- REPUBLICANOS4042455650
- MDB4138303934
- PODEMOS2027173124
- PSB1517162721
- PSDB/
Cidadania 1820112116 - PSOL/
Rede 151691813 - PDT1693159
- NOVO352148
- PRD/
Solidariedade 1273117 - AVANTE753127
- MISSÃO01183
- PL979798
- União/
PP 1059198 - PT/
PCdoB/ 828381PV - PSD425048
- REPUBLICANOS405042
- MDB413438
- PODEMOS202427
- PSDB/
Cidadania 181620 - PSB152117
- PSOL/
Rede 151316 - PDT1699
- PRD/
Solidariedade 1277 - AVANTE775
- NOVO385
- MISSÃO031
- Other parties001
- União/
PP 9891105 - PL989797
- PT/
PCdoB/ 818382PV - PSD485042
- MDB383441
- REPUBLICANOS425040
- PODEMOS272420
- PSDB/
Cidadania 201618 - PDT9916
- PSB172115
- PSOL/
Rede 161315 - PRD/
Solidariedade 7712 - AVANTE577
- NOVO583
- MISSÃO130
Performance clause
The law requires parties to reach set levels of electoral performance to keep access to the Party Fund and to radio and TV time. There are two routes: at least 13 deputies spread across at least nine states (route 1), or 2.5% of the valid votes for the Chamber, with at least 1.5% in nine different states (route 2). Below, the models' estimated probabilities that each party or federation clears the performance clause.
| chance | sensitivity | route 1 | route 2 | seats | what fails | deciding states | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSDB/Cidadania | >95% | 92%–100% | 85% | >95% | 16 (11–21) | national vote | — |
| PSOL/Rede | 44% | 24%–49% | <5% | 44% | 13 (9–18) | nine states | AM 22% · SC 20% · BA 11% · AP 11% |
| NOVO | 22% | 17%–38% | <5% | 22% | 8 (2–14) | both | MG 18% · AC 12% · MS 10% · AP 8% |
| PDT | 22% | 10%–34% | <5% | 22% | 9 (3–15) | national vote | CE 10% · RN 9% · PA 8% · MA 8% |
| PRD/Solidariedade | 16% | 8%–27% | <5% | 16% | 7 (3–11) | national vote | AC 16% · SP 16% · RR 12% · PA 10% |
| AVANTE | 14% | 1%–27% | <5% | 14% | 7 (3–12) | both | SP 13% · RO 12% · RJ 10% · RS 10% |
| MISSÃO | <5% | 0%–2% | <5% | <5% | 3 (1–8) | both | BA 51% · ES 43% · SC 6% |
Sensitivity: the chance of meeting the clause under different assumptions about how much the states move together.
Clear the clause comfortably: PL, União/PP, PT/PCdoB/PV, PSD, REPUBLICANOS, MDB, PODEMOS, PSB.
State by state
Below, our models' projection by state. Delegations vary widely in size (from 8 to 70 deputies), and the models are much less precise in the smaller states. Click a state to see our projection.
Click a state
AcreAC
8 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
5 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 65343 - REPUBLICANOS21122
- MDB01121
- PL00011
- PT/
PCdoB/ 00011PV - PRD/
Solidariedade 0100
AlagoasAL
9 seats · 4 parties projected to win a seat
6 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 55344 - MDB22232
- PSD01122
- PSDB/
Cidadania 00011 - PL01010
- PT/
PCdoB/ 20010PV
AmazonasAM
8 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
5 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- REPUBLICANOS22122
- MDB02122
- PL11122
- PSD22121
- União/
PP 21121 - PSDB/
Cidadania 1000
AmapáAP
8 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
5 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PDT22132
- PT/
PCdoB/ 12122PV - União/
PP 1222 - PL11121
- PODEMOS00021
- MDB1100
- PSOL/
Rede 1000 - REPUBLICANOS1000
BahiaBA
39 seats · 10 parties projected to win a seat
30 safe seats, 7 likely and 2 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PT/
PCdoB/ 10108119PV - União/
PP 1087108 - PSD66475
- REPUBLICANOS34354
- PL33344
- PSB12243
- AVANTE12142
- PSDB/
Cidadania 11132 - PDT21021
- MDB11121
- DC0100
- PODEMOS1000
CearáCE
22 seats · 9 parties projected to win a seat
16 safe seats, 4 likely and 2 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL54354
- União/
PP 54344 - PSD34344
- PT/
PCdoB/ 33343PV - PSB03243
- MDB1211
- PRD/
Solidariedade 00021 - PSDB/
Cidadania 00011 - REPUBLICANOS0011
- PDT51010
- PSOL/
Rede 01010
Distrito FederalDF
8 seats · 7 parties projected to win a seat
1 safe seat, 5 likely and 2 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- REPUBLICANOS22132
- PL22021
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22021PV - MDB11021
- PSB11021
- PSOL/
Rede 00021 - União/
PP 00021
Espírito SantoES
10 seats · 6 parties projected to win a seat
7 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 23233 - PSB12232
- PODEMOS21122
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22011PV - REPUBLICANOS21121
- PL1111
GoiásGO
17 seats · 9 parties projected to win a seat
13 safe seats, 3 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 43454 - MDB23232
- PL42232
- PT/
PCdoB/ 2222PV - PSD12122
- PSDB/
Cidadania 12122 - REPUBLICANOS1211
- PODEMOS11021
- PRD/
Solidariedade 00021 - PDT1000
MaranhãoMA
18 seats · 10 parties projected to win a seat
10 safe seats, 7 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- MDB13344
- União/
PP 44243 - PL43232
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22232PV - PRD/
Solidariedade 12022 - PODEMOS21011
- REPUBLICANOS11121
- PSDB/
Cidadania 01011 - PSB10011
- PSD10011
- AVANTE01010
- PDT10020
Minas GeraisMG
53 seats · 13 parties projected to win a seat
39 safe seats, 13 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL1114141816
- PT/
PCdoB/ 10991210PV - União/
PP 6117109 - PSD44354
- REPUBLICANOS23344
- PSOL/
Rede 13253 - PSDB/
Cidadania 23021 - MDB2211
- AVANTE51031
- PRD/
Solidariedade 51031 - PODEMOS31021
- PDT21021
- PSB00021
Mato Grosso do SulMS
8 seats · 4 parties projected to win a seat
6 safe seats and 2 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 13233 - PL22233
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22121PV - REPUBLICANOS01121
- PSDB/
Cidadania 30010
Mato GrossoMT
8 seats · 6 parties projected to win a seat
6 safe seats and 2 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL44232
- União/
PP 21122 - PODEMOS01011
- PSD01121
- REPUBLICANOS01121
- PT/
PCdoB/ 0011PV - MDB2000
ParáPA
17 seats · 8 parties projected to win a seat
12 safe seats, 4 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- MDB95465
- PL33122
- PSD22232
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22122PV - PODEMOS02132
- REPUBLICANOS00122
- União/
PP 11121 - PSB01121
- PDT01010
ParaíbaPB
12 seats · 6 parties projected to win a seat
9 safe seats, 2 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- REPUBLICANOS33343
- União/
PP 32232 - PODEMOS22132
- PSD02122
- PL21122
- PT/
PCdoB/ 12121PV - PSB10010
PernambucoPE
25 seats · 9 parties projected to win a seat
18 safe seats, 6 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 74465 - PT/
PCdoB/ 33344PV - PSB55243
- PSD03343
- REPUBLICANOS22233
- PL43232
- AVANTE11032
- PODEMOS00132
- MDB12121
- PRD/
Solidariedade 11010 - PSDB/
Cidadania 01010 - PSOL/
Rede 1000
PiauíPI
10 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
7 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PT/
PCdoB/ 54454PV - União/
PP 22122 - MDB02122
- PSD31121
- REPUBLICANOS01011
ParanáPR
30 seats · 11 parties projected to win a seat
21 safe seats, 7 likely and 2 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 810576 - PL34586
- PT/
PCdoB/ 66465PV - PSD74454
- REPUBLICANOS11122
- NOVO00042
- PODEMOS12121
- MDB11121
- PSB11011
- PSDB/
Cidadania 11011 - PDT00021
- PRD/
Solidariedade 1000
Rio de JaneiroRJ
46 seats · 13 parties projected to win a seat
33 safe seats, 12 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL1110101412
- PT/
PCdoB/ 67687PV - PSD45465
- União/
PP 94465 - PSDB/
Cidadania 06364 - PSOL/
Rede 55364 - REPUBLICANOS34232
- PDT11052
- PRD/
Solidariedade 31021 - MDB21121
- NOVO01031
- AVANTE00021
- MISSÃO00021
- PODEMOS1100
- PSB10010
Rio Grande do NorteRN
8 seats · 3 parties projected to win a seat
6 safe seats and 2 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL43233
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22233PV - União/
PP 23232
RondôniaRO
8 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
5 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 33232 - PL23232
- PSD00122
- PODEMOS12021
- REPUBLICANOS00011
- MDB2000
RoraimaRR
8 seats · 6 parties projected to win a seat
4 safe seats, 3 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 24232 - REPUBLICANOS31232
- PL01021
- PODEMOS01021
- PSDB/
Cidadania 00021 - PT/
PCdoB/ 00021PV - PSD1100
- MDB20010
Rio Grande do SulRS
31 seats · 10 parties projected to win a seat
21 safe seats, 9 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PT/
PCdoB/ 77687PV - PL47586
- União/
PP 45454 - PSD13243
- MDB32233
- REPUBLICANOS32232
- PDT22032
- NOVO11042
- PSOL/
Rede 11021 - PODEMOS10021
- PSDB/
Cidadania 31010 - PSB10010
Santa CatarinaSC
16 seats · 7 parties projected to win a seat
12 safe seats, 3 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL67565
- PT/
PCdoB/ 22233PV - MDB33122
- REPUBLICANOS02232
- União/
PP 11122 - NOVO11021
- PSD20121
- PSDB/
Cidadania 1000
SergipeSE
8 seats · 5 parties projected to win a seat
6 safe seats and 2 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- União/
PP 32232 - PSD22122
- REPUBLICANOS12122
- PT/
PCdoB/ 1111PV - PSB00121
- PL11010
São PauloSP
70 seats · 14 parties projected to win a seat
50 safe seats, 19 likely and 1 contested. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations. Contested: in less than half of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- PL1716131916
- PT/
PCdoB/ 111191211PV - União/
PP 106687 - PODEMOS411496
- REPUBLICANOS54576
- PSD35465
- PSOL/
Rede 66264 - MDB53354
- PSB22364
- NOVO12052
- MISSÃO01152
- PSDB/
Cidadania 52021 - PRD/
Solidariedade 11031 - AVANTE00021
TocantinsTO
8 seats · 6 parties projected to win a seat
5 safe seats and 3 likely. Safe: the party wins the seat in at least 95% of simulations. Likely: in at least 50% of simulations.
Each square is one of the state's deputies, in the colour of the projected party.
- REPUBLICANOS32122
- União/
PP 21232 - PSDB/
Cidadania 02121 - PL2111
- PODEMOS11021
- PT/
PCdoB/ 00011PV - MDB0100
Parties by state
Pick a party to see its projections by state. The stronger the colour, the more deputies projected for the party in that state. The list of states shows the 90% confidence interval and the mean seats in the projection.
PL
97 projected seats · a real chance in 26 states
- SP131916
- MG141816
- RJ101412
- PR586
- RS586
- SC565
- CE354
- BA344
- MS233
- RN233
- MA232
- PE232
- GO232
- MT232
- RO232
- PA122
- AM122
- PB122
- AP121
- DF021
- TO11
- ES11
- RR021
- AC011
- SE010
- AL010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
União/PP
91 projected seats · a real chance in 27 states
- MG7109
- BA7108
- SP687
- PR576
- RJ465
- PE465
- GO454
- RS454
- AL344
- CE344
- AC343
- MA243
- ES233
- MS233
- RN232
- PB232
- TO232
- RO232
- RR232
- SE232
- AP22
- SC122
- MT122
- PI122
- AM121
- PA121
- DF021
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PT/PCdoB/PV
83 projected seats · a real chance in 26 states
- SP91211
- MG91210
- BA8119
- RS687
- RJ687
- PR465
- PI454
- PE344
- CE343
- RN233
- SC233
- MA232
- GO22
- AP122
- PA122
- MS121
- DF021
- PB121
- SE11
- MT11
- ES011
- RR021
- TO011
- AC011
- AL010
- RO010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PSD
50 projected seats · a real chance in 21 states
- BA475
- SP465
- RJ465
- PR454
- MG354
- CE344
- PE343
- RS243
- PA232
- GO122
- AL122
- PB122
- SE122
- RO122
- PI121
- AM121
- SC121
- MT121
- MA011
- DF010
- AP010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
REPUBLICANOS
50 projected seats · a real chance in 24 states
- SP576
- BA354
- MG344
- PB343
- PE233
- RJ232
- RR232
- RS232
- SC232
- DF132
- PR122
- AC122
- AM122
- TO122
- SE122
- MA121
- ES121
- PA122
- MT121
- MS121
- CE11
- GO11
- PI011
- RO011
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
MDB
34 projected seats · a real chance in 18 states
- PA465
- SP354
- MA344
- RS233
- GO232
- AL232
- SC122
- AC121
- AM122
- PI122
- BA121
- DF021
- RJ121
- PE121
- PR121
- CE11
- MG11
- RR010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PODEMOS
24 projected seats · a real chance in 16 states
- SP496
- PA132
- PE132
- PB132
- ES122
- PR121
- RO021
- MG021
- RS021
- AP021
- GO021
- RR021
- TO021
- MT011
- MA011
- SC010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PSB
21 projected seats · a real chance in 14 states
- SP364
- CE243
- PE243
- BA243
- ES232
- PA121
- SE121
- MG021
- DF021
- PR011
- MA011
- PB010
- RJ010
- RS010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PSDB/Cidadania
16 projected seats · a real chance in 15 states
- RJ364
- BA132
- TO121
- GO122
- SP021
- MG021
- PR011
- MA011
- AL011
- CE011
- RS010
- RR021
- PE010
- AC010
- MS010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PSOL/Rede
13 projected seats · a real chance in 7 states
- RJ364
- SP264
- MG253
- RS021
- DF021
- CE010
- PA010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PDT
9 projected seats · a real chance in 10 states
- RJ052
- AP132
- RS032
- MG021
- BA021
- MA020
- PR021
- PA010
- CE010
- SP010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
NOVO
8 projected seats · a real chance in 7 states
- SP052
- RS042
- PR042
- RJ031
- SC021
- MG010
- PE010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
PRD/Solidariedade
7 projected seats · a real chance in 7 states
- MA022
- MG031
- SP031
- RJ021
- CE021
- GO021
- PE010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
AVANTE
7 projected seats · a real chance in 7 states
- BA142
- PE032
- MG031
- RJ021
- SP021
- MA010
- AM010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
MISSÃO
3 projected seats · a real chance in 3 states
- SP152
- RJ021
- PR010
States where the party has less than a 5% chance of electing at least one deputy are not shown.
Party comparison by state
The states where we project gains and losses for each party, compared with the 2022 election and the current bench. The stronger the colour, the bigger the likely change.
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