Press

Plano Político is an independent project in quantitative electoral analysis: a poll aggregator with confidence intervals, probabilistic models for the 2026 elections, and pollster performance metrics across 101 elections since 2002. All content on the website is open, with a stated methodology.

What we publish

Poll Aggregator. Aggregation of polls registered with the TSE for the presidential election — national and by state — and for the state gubernatorial elections, with confidence intervals. Updated continuously as new polls are registered.

Forecasting Models. Statistical projections of the 2026 elections. The presidential model covers each candidate's probability of winning, the distribution of first-round vote shares, and runoff scenarios. We also publish models for state governorships and the Senate. The model for the Chamber of Deputies is not yet published.

Pollster Performance (2002–2022). Descriptive metrics on each pollster's historical performance in presidential and gubernatorial elections.

How to cite

Attribution to “Plano Político (planopolitico.com.br)”, with a link. Figures published on the website may be cited freely, provided the source is named. When citing the forecasting models, we ask that the description preserve their limitations: they are statistical projections carrying uncertainty. We do not conduct opinion polls.

Charts and reproduction

Charts from the website may be reproduced provided the source is cited. High-resolution versions and specific crops are available on request — write in naming the chart and the outlet.

About the author

Vinícius Justo, founder of Plano Político. PhD in Political Science from Ohio State University, with training in quantitative methodology and comparative politics.

Contact

contato@planopolitico.com.br. During the campaign, we respond to press requests the same day.