Model log

As stated in the methodology, Plano Político's model for the Chamber of Deputies is experimental and should be read with caution. Our first publication estimates the parties and federations at both the state and the national level, with the following national results:

• PL: between 87 and 108 deputies, with an average of 97 across the simulations
• União/PP: between 84 and 99 deputies, with an average of 91 across the simulations
• PT/PCdoB/PV: between 75 and 92 deputies, with an average of 83 across the simulations
• REPUBLICANOS: between 45 and 56 deputies, with an average of 50 across the simulations
• PSD: between 44 and 57 deputies, with an average of 50 across the simulations
• MDB: between 30 and 39 deputies, with an average of 34 across the simulations
• PODEMOS: between 17 and 31 deputies, with an average of 24 across the simulations
• PSB: between 16 and 27 deputies, with an average of 21 across the simulations
• PSDB/Cidadania: between 11 and 21 deputies, with an average of 16 across the simulations
• PSOL/Rede: between 9 and 18 deputies, with an average of 13 across the simulations
• PDT: between 3 and 15 deputies, with an average of 9 across the simulations
• NOVO: between 2 and 14 deputies, with an average of 8 across the simulations
• PRD/Solidariedade: between 3 and 11 deputies, with an average of 7 across the simulations
• AVANTE: between 3 and 12 deputies, with an average of 7 across the simulations
• MISSÃO: between 1 and 8 deputies, with an average of 3 across the simulations

The 90% confidence interval is built from the simulations of the election. Because there is a great deal of rounding and of joint estimation of votes within each state list, the model may, for example, have good national accuracy while missing the state estimates considerably. In the days after the election, Plano Político will publish an analysis of how the model performed against the results.

The model will be updated only twice more, on the next two Saturdays. Because there are very few polls for federal deputy, the only relevant inputs to the updates will be campaign funding (based on the updates released by the TSE), rulings on candidacies challenged in the electoral courts, the latest projections from our presidential and governor models, and additional research on the impact of the presidential, gubernatorial and Senate campaigns on specific candidacies.