Model log

A record of changes and commentary on the Plano Político 2026 Senate Model.

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23 Sep 20261 day · 366 polls (+3)generated automatically

23 Sep 2026 · 366 polls (+3: PB, RJ, SC) · RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 73% → 77%, Monica Benicio (PSOL) 9% → 6%, Waguinho (REPUBLICANOS) 9% → 7%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 20% → 21% · SC: Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) 52% → 56%, Afrânio Boppré (PSOL) 8% → 5%, Carol de Toni (PL) 73% → 76%, Lunelli (MDB) 6% → 4%, Décio Lima (PT) 14% → 12%, Esperidião Amin (PP) 43% → 44% · PB: André Gadelha (MDB) 6% → 3%, Nabor (REPUBLICANOS) 61% → 63%, Joao Azevêdo (PSB) 97% → 98%, Veneziano (MDB) 30% → 31%

22 Sep 2026 · 363 polls (+14: AL, AP, CE, GO, MA, MG, MS, PE, PR, RN, RS, SE, SP, TO)

AP: Randolfe (PT) 59% → 52%, Alliny Serrão (UNIÃO) 29% → 36%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 10% → 12%
RS: Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) 57% → 64%, Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 43% → 37%, Pimenta (PT) 32% → 28%, Sanderson (PL) 40% → 43%, Rigotto (MDB) 21% → 22%
SE: André Moura (UNIÃO) 53% → 48%, Delegado André David (REPUBLICANOS) 18% → 21%, Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 18% → 20%, Rogerio Carvalho (PT) 60% → 58%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 10% → 12%, Coronel Rocha (PL) 2% → 3%

11 more states

AL: Renan (MDB) 58% → 53%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 59% → 62%, Arthur Lira (PP) 73% → 75%, Dr. Wanderley (MDB) 6% → 5%
TO: Eduardo Gomes (PL) 54% → 58%, Gaguim (UNIÃO) 31% → 29%, Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) 52% → 54%, Ronaldo Dimas (PODEMOS) 15% → 14%, Vanderlei Luxemburgo (PODEMOS) 10% → 9%, Paulo Mourão (PT) 16% → 15%, Eli Borges (REPUBLICANOS) 16% → 15%
MA: Fufuca (PP) 28% → 31%, Weverton Rocha (PDT) 46% → 43%, Eliziane Gama (PT) 19% → 18%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) 12% → 13%
GO: Gustavo Gayer (PL) 52% → 56%, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 15% → 14%, Ernesto Roller (PSDB) 8% → 6%, Gustavo Mendanha (PRD) 18% → 19%, Iure Castro (CIDADANIA) 5% → 4%, Isaura Lemos (PSB) 9% → 8%, Dr. Zacharias Calil (MDB) 28% → 29%, Cintia Dias (PSOL) 7% → 6%
PE: Marília Arraes (PDT) 76% → 79%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 28% → 26%, Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) 10% → 9%, Humberto Costa (PT) 66% → 67%, Paulo Rubem Santiago (REDE) 3% → 2%
PR: Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 46% → 48%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 25% → 23%, Gleisi (PT) 31% → 33%, Dr Rosinha (PT) 10% → 8%, Filipe Barros (PL) 34% → 32%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 52% → 54%
SP: Salles (NOVO) 8% → 6%, André do Prado (PL) 48% → 50%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 57% → 58%, Marina Silva (REDE) 39% → 38%
MS: Capitão Contar (PL) 78% → 80%, Vander Loubet (PT) 12% → 11%, Soraya (PSB) 13% → 12%
CE: Luizianne (REDE) 64% → 66%, Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 37% → 35%, Cid Gomes (PSB) 84% → 83%, Alcides Fernandes (PL) 14% → 15%
MG: Domingos Sávio (PL) 41% → 40%
RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 72% → 71%

generated automatically

21 Sep 2026 · 349 polls (+6: AC, AL, BA, MG, PI, SP)

SP: Marina Silva (REDE) 44% → 39%, André do Prado (PL) 44% → 48%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 54% → 57%, Simone Tebet (PSB) 44% → 43%
PI: Julio Cesar (PSD) 62% → 66%, Ciro Nogueira (PP) 42% → 39%, Marcelo Castro (MDB) 77% → 78%, Tiago Junqueira (PL) 6% → 5%
MG: Domingos Sávio (PL) 38% → 41%, Marília Campos (PT) 66% → 64%, Aécio Neves (PSDB) 28% → 27%, Carlos Viana (PSD) 24% → 26%, Carlin Moura (AVANTE) 7% → 6%, Marcelo Aro (PP) 18% → 19%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 13% → 12%

3 more states

AC: Petecão (PSD) 10% → 8%, Marcio Bittar (PL) 66% → 68%, Gladson Camelí (PP) 78% → 79%, Jorge Viana (PT) 22% → 21%, Eduardo Velloso (SOLIDARIEDADE) 6% → 5%, Mara Rocha (REPUBLICANOS) 15% → 16%
AL: Renan (MDB) 59% → 58%, Arthur Lira (PP) 71% → 73%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 58% → 59%
BA: Jaques Wagner (PT) 61% → 60%

generated automatically

20 Sep 2026 · 343 polls (+47: AC, AL, AP, BA, CE, ES, MA, MG, MS, PA, PB, PE, PR, RJ, RN, RO, RR, RS, SE, SP, TO)

RO: Sílvia Cristina (PP) 40% → 53%, Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) 69% → 60%, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) 36% → 27%, Acir Gurgacz (PDT) 10% → 14%, Mariana Carvalho (REPUBLICANOS) 35% → 36%, Luis Fernando (PSD) 5% → 4%
RR: Nicoletti (PL) 31% → 42%, Pastor Isamar (UNIÃO) 16% → 9%, Helio Bolsonaro (PL) 15% → 11%, Teresa Surita (MDB) 36% → 39%, Márcio Junqueira (PSDB) 6% → 5%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) 65% → 63%, Chico Rodrigues (PSB) 21% → 22%, Rogério Miranda (DC) 3% → 2%
RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 63% → 72%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 20% → 17%, Tércio Tinôco (UNIÃO) 8% → 5%, Samanda de Lula (PT) 17% → 16%, Zenaide Maia (PSD) 73% → 74%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 11% → 10%

17 more states

AP: Randolfe (PT) 66% → 59%, Rayssa Furlan (PODEMOS) 53% → 56%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 8% → 10%, Lucas Barreto (PSD) 36% → 37%, Capi (PSB) 5% → 4%
SE: Rogerio Carvalho (PT) 54% → 60%, Eduardo Amorim (REPUBLICANOS) 21% → 16%, Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 16% → 18%, André Moura (UNIÃO) 55% → 53%, Edvaldo (PDT) 13% → 12%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 11% → 10%
MA: Fufuca (PP) 23% → 28%, Roseana Sarney (MDB) 70% → 73%, Weverton Rocha (PDT) 49% → 46%, Eliziane Gama (PT) 21% → 19%, Cidônio Gonçalves (PL) 5% → 4%, Enilton Rodrigues (PSOL) 4% → 3%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) 13% → 12%
TO: Eli Borges (REPUBLICANOS) 20% → 16%, Eduardo Gomes (PL) 52% → 54%, Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) 50% → 52%, Ronaldo Dimas (PODEMOS) 16% → 15%, Gaguim (UNIÃO) 30% → 31%
MS: Capitão Contar (PL) 74% → 78%, Vander Loubet (PT) 14% → 12%, Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) 94% → 93%, Soraya (PSB) 14% → 13%
PB: Nabor (REPUBLICANOS) 64% → 61%, Veneziano (MDB) 28% → 30%
RS: Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) 55% → 57%, Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 45% → 43%, Pimenta (PT) 34% → 32%, Sanderson (PL) 39% → 40%
AL: Renan (MDB) 61% → 59%, Arthur Lira (PP) 70% → 71%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 57% → 58%
PE: Humberto Costa (PT) 64% → 66%, Marília Arraes (PDT) 77% → 76%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 26% → 28%, Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) 12% → 10%, Mendonça Filho (PL) 15% → 14%
ES: Rose de Freitas (MDB) 34% → 32%, Maguinha Malta (PL) 14% → 15%, Marcos do Val (AVANTE) 8% → 9%
PR: Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 48% → 46%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 24% → 25%, Gleisi (PT) 30% → 31%
BA: Rui Costa (PT) 79% → 77%, Jaques Wagner (PT) 60% → 61%, João Roma (PL) 29% → 30%
PA: Helder (MDB) 93% → 92%, Celso Sabino (PDT) 10% → 11%, Chicão (UNIÃO) 52% → 53%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 18% → 19%
MG: Carlos Viana (PSD) 23% → 24%, Marília Campos (PT) 67% → 66%
AC: Marcio Bittar (PL) 67% → 66%, Eduardo Velloso (SOLIDARIEDADE) 5% → 6%
RJ: Pedro Paulo (PSD) 45% → 44%, Monica Benicio (PSOL) 8% → 9%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 21% → 20%
CE: Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 36% → 37%

generated automatically

18 Sep 2026 – 19 Sep 20262 days · 296 polls (+7)generated automatically

19 Sep 2026 · 296 polls (+3: AC, CE, RS) · RS: Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 40% → 45%, Sanderson (PL) 43% → 39%, Frederico Antunes (PSD) 7% → 5%, Pimenta (PT) 32% → 34%, Rigotto (MDB) 22% → 21%, Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) 54% → 55% · AC: Gladson Camelí (PP) 76% → 78%, Marcio Bittar (PL) 64% → 67%, Petecão (PSD) 12% → 10%, Eduardo Velloso (SOLIDARIEDADE) 7% → 5%, Jorge Viana (PT) 23% → 22% · CE: Alcides Fernandes (PL) 16% → 14%
18 Sep 2026 · 293 polls (+4: CE, MT, PR) · MT: Mauro Mendes (UNIÃO) 82% → 85%, Margareth Buzetti (PP) 7% → 5%, Pedro Taques (PSB) 30% → 28%, Jose Medeiros (PL) 25% → 26% · CE: Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 33% → 36%, Cid Gomes (PSB) 85% → 84%, Luizianne (REDE) 65% → 64%, Alcides Fernandes (PL) 15% → 16% · PR: Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 50% → 52%, Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 49% → 48%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 25% → 24%, Dr Rosinha (PT) 11% → 10%, Filipe Barros (PL) 33% → 34%

17 Sep 2026 · 289 polls (+5: PI, PR, SC, TO)

PI: Ciro Nogueira (PP) 36% → 42%, Tiago Junqueira (PL) 8% → 6%, Marcelo Castro (MDB) 79% → 77%, Julio Cesar (PSD) 64% → 62%
TO: Eduardo Gomes (PL) 48% → 52%, Gaguim (UNIÃO) 32% → 30%, Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) 52% → 50%, Ronaldo Dimas (PODEMOS) 14% → 16%
PR: Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 46% → 49%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 27% → 25%, Filipe Barros (PL) 32% → 33%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 51% → 50%, Gleisi (PT) 31% → 30%

1 more state

SC: Lunelli (MDB) 8% → 6%, Esperidião Amin (PP) 42% → 43%, Carol de Toni (PL) 74% → 73%

generated automatically

16 Sep 20261 day · 284 polls (+1)generated automatically

16 Sep 2026 · 284 polls (+1: GO) · GO: Gustavo Gayer (PL) 45% → 53%, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 22% → 15%, Dr. Zacharias Calil (MDB) 26% → 28%, Gustavo Mendanha (PRD) 20% → 18%, Gracinha Caiado (UNIÃO) 50% → 52%, Oséias Varão (PL) 8% → 7%, Iure Castro (CIDADANIA) 6% → 5%, Isaura Lemos (PSB) 9% → 8%

15 Sep 2026 · 283 polls (+7: AL, GO, PA, PE, RN, TO)

AL: Marina JHC (PSDB) 47% → 57%, Arthur Lira (PP) 74% → 70%, Renan (MDB) 64% → 61%, Dr. Wanderley (MDB) 9% → 6%
GO: Gracinha Caiado (UNIÃO) 40% → 50%, Gustavo Mendanha (PRD) 22% → 20%, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 24% → 22%, Isaura Lemos (PSB) 10% → 9%, Oséias Varão (PL) 9% → 8%, Cintia Dias (PSOL) 8% → 7%, Ernesto Roller (PSDB) 9% → 8%, Gustavo Gayer (PL) 44% → 45%
TO: Eduardo Gomes (PL) 45% → 48%, Ronaldo Dimas (PODEMOS) 16% → 14%, Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) 51% → 52%, Paulo Mourão (PT) 17% → 16%, Vanderlei Luxemburgo (PODEMOS) 11% → 10%

2 more states

PE: Humberto Costa (PT) 66% → 64%, Mendonça Filho (PL) 14% → 15%, Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) 11% → 12%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 27% → 26%, Marília Arraes (PDT) 78% → 77%
PA: Helder (MDB) 92% → 93%, Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) 20% → 19%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 19% → 18%

generated automatically

14 Sep 2026 · projected seats: PL 11 → 12, PRD 1 → 0 · 276 polls (+3: RJ, SC, SP)

SC: Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) 47% → 52%, Esperidião Amin (PP) 45% → 42%, Décio Lima (PT) 15% → 14%
SP: Marina Silva (REDE) 48% → 44%, André do Prado (PL) 41% → 44%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 53% → 54%, Simone Tebet (PSB) 45% → 44%
RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 76% → 73%, Carlos Jordy (PL) 21% → 22%, Pedro Paulo (PSD) 44% → 45%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 20% → 21%, Waguinho (REPUBLICANOS) 10% → 9%

generated automatically

12 Sep 2026 – 13 Sep 20262 days · 273 polls (+2)generated automatically

13 Sep 2026 · 273 polls (+2: DF, RN) · DF: Bia Kicis (PL) 50% → 48%, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 85% → 87%, Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 37% → 38% · RN: Rafael Motta (PDT) 18% → 20%, Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 65% → 63%, Tércio Tinôco (UNIÃO) 9% → 8%
12 Sep 2026 · 271 polls · ES: Rose de Freitas (MDB) 42% → 34%, Fabiano Contarato (PT) 17% → 19%, Evair de Melo (REPUBLICANOS) 14% → 16%, Maguinha Malta (PL) 13% → 14% · PR: Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 26% → 27%, Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 47% → 46% · SE: Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 15% → 16% · CE: Cid Gomes (PSB) 86% → 85%

11 Sep 2026 · 271 polls (+10: AP, DF, GO, MG, PA, PE, RJ, SC, SP)

SC: Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) 62% → 47%, Carol de Toni (PL) 61% → 74%, Esperidião Amin (PP) 42% → 45%, Lunelli (MDB) 10% → 8%, Afrânio Boppré (PSOL) 7% → 8%
AP: Alliny Serrão (UNIÃO) 16% → 29%, Rayssa Furlan (PODEMOS) 62% → 53%, Lucas Barreto (PSD) 42% → 36%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 6% → 8%, Randolfe (PT) 65% → 66%
GO: Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 19% → 24%, Gustavo Gayer (PL) 48% → 44%, Gracinha Caiado (UNIÃO) 39% → 40%, Gustavo Mendanha (PRD) 23% → 22%, Oséias Varão (PL) 10% → 9%, Ernesto Roller (PSDB) 10% → 9%, Isaura Lemos (PSB) 11% → 10%, Iure Castro (CIDADANIA) 7% → 6%

6 more states

SP: Guilherme Derrite (PP) 55% → 53%, André do Prado (PL) 39% → 41%, Marina Silva (REDE) 49% → 48%, Salles (NOVO) 7% → 8%
RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 74% → 76%, Pedro Paulo (PSD) 46% → 44%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 22% → 20%, Carlos Jordy (PL) 20% → 21%, Carlos Portinho (PL) 13% → 14%
DF: Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 87% → 85%, Bia Kicis (PL) 49% → 50%, Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 36% → 37%
PE: Humberto Costa (PT) 64% → 66%, Marília Arraes (PDT) 79% → 78%, Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) 12% → 11%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 26% → 27%
MG: Carlos Viana (PSD) 22% → 23%, Marília Campos (PT) 68% → 67%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 14% → 13%, Aécio Neves (PSDB) 27% → 28%
PA: Helder (MDB) 93% → 92%, Chicão (UNIÃO) 51% → 52%

generated automatically

10 Sep 2026 · 261 polls (+10: MA, MS, PB, PR, RN, RR, RS)

RR: Teresa Surita (MDB) 28% → 36%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) 71% → 65%, Pastor Isamar (UNIÃO) 19% → 16%, Chico Rodrigues (PSB) 18% → 21%, Nicoletti (PL) 34% → 31%, Helio Bolsonaro (PL) 13% → 15%, Márcio Junqueira (PSDB) 7% → 6%, Rogério Miranda (DC) 2% → 3%
RS: Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) 50% → 54%, Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 45% → 40%, Sanderson (PL) 39% → 43%, Rigotto (MDB) 24% → 22%, Frederico Antunes (PSD) 8% → 7%, Pimenta (PT) 33% → 32%
MA: Roseana Sarney (MDB) 74% → 70%, Eliziane Gama (PT) 19% → 21%, Fufuca (PP) 22% → 23%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) 12% → 13%, Cidônio Gonçalves (PL) 6% → 5%

4 more states

PR: Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 43% → 47%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 54% → 51%, Gleisi (PT) 34% → 31%, Filipe Barros (PL) 30% → 32%
PB: Veneziano (MDB) 24% → 28%, Nabor (REPUBLICANOS) 68% → 64%, Joao Azevêdo (PSB) 96% → 97%, André Gadelha (MDB) 7% → 6%
RN: Samanda de Lula (PT) 15% → 17%, Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 67% → 65%
MS: Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) 93% → 94%

generated automatically

9 Sep 20261 day · 251 polls (+4)generated automatically

9 Sep 2026 · 251 polls (+4: BA, DF, ES, MT) · MT: Mauro Mendes (UNIÃO) 78% → 82%, Pedro Taques (PSB) 31% → 29%, Janaina Riva (MDB) 35% → 34%, Margareth Buzetti (PP) 8% → 7%, Jose Medeiros (PL) 24% → 25% · BA: Jaques Wagner (PT) 62% → 60%, João Roma (PL) 26% → 29%, Angelo Coronel (REPUBLICANOS) 27% → 29%, Rui Costa (PT) 80% → 79% · DF: Bia Kicis (PL) 47% → 49%, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 88% → 87%, Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 37% → 36% · ES: Evair de Melo (REPUBLICANOS) 13% → 14%, Renato Casagrande (PSB) 90% → 89%, Maguinha Malta (PL) 12% → 13%, Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) 7% → 8%

8 Sep 2026 · projected seats: PRD 0 → 1, PSD 5 → 4 · 247 polls (+34: AC, AL, AM, AP, BA, CE, DF, GO, MA, MG, MT, PA, PE, PI, PR, RJ, RN, SE, SP, TO)

SP: André do Prado (PL) 47% → 39%, Marina Silva (REDE) 44% → 49%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 50% → 55%, Salles (NOVO) 10% → 7%, Simone Tebet (PSB) 43% → 45%
RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 67% → 74%, Waguinho (REPUBLICANOS) 12% → 10%, Monica Benicio (PSOL) 9% → 8%, Pedro Paulo (PSD) 47% → 46%, Carlos Jordy (PL) 21% → 20%
GO: Gustavo Gayer (PL) 41% → 48%, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 24% → 19%, Gustavo Mendanha (PRD) 20% → 23%, Ernesto Roller (PSDB) 11% → 10%, Oséias Varão (PL) 11% → 10%, Isaura Lemos (PSB) 12% → 11%, Dr. Zacharias Calil (MDB) 25% → 26%, Iure Castro (CIDADANIA) 8% → 7%, Cintia Dias (PSOL) 9% → 8%

7 more states

AP: Rayssa Furlan (PODEMOS) 56% → 62%, Lucas Barreto (PSD) 47% → 42%, Randolfe (PT) 64% → 65%, Alliny Serrão (UNIÃO) 17% → 16%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 7% → 6%
MG: Aécio Neves (PSDB) 24% → 27%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 17% → 14%, Marcelo Aro (PP) 20% → 18%, Marília Campos (PT) 67% → 68%, Carlin Moura (AVANTE) 8% → 7%, Carlos Viana (PSD) 21% → 22%, Domingos Sávio (PL) 37% → 38%
PE: Humberto Costa (PT) 61% → 64%, Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) 14% → 12%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 28% → 26%, Marília Arraes (PDT) 78% → 79%, Paulo Rubem Santiago (REDE) 4% → 3%, Mendonça Filho (PL) 13% → 14%
CE: Alcides Fernandes (PL) 13% → 15%, Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 35% → 33%
PA: Helder (MDB) 92% → 93%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 20% → 19%, Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) 21% → 20%, Chicão (UNIÃO) 50% → 51%
DF: Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 36% → 37%, Ronaldo Fonseca (PSD) 4% → 3%
BA: Jaques Wagner (PT) 63% → 62%

generated automatically

5 Sep 2026 – 7 Sep 20263 days · 1 day with no change to the published figuregenerated automatically

7 Sep 2026 · 213 polls · DF: Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 86% → 88%, Bia Kicis (PL) 49% → 47%, Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 38% → 36%, Erika Kokay (PT) 19% → 20% · AC: Jorge Viana (PT) 21% → 23%, Marcio Bittar (PL) 65% → 64% · TO: Paulo Mourão (PT) 19% → 17%, Vanderlei Luxemburgo (PODEMOS) 10% → 11%, Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) 50% → 51%, Eduardo Gomes (PL) 46% → 45%
6 Sep 2026 · 213 polls · no change to the published figure
5 Sep 2026 · 213 polls · PI: Ciro Nogueira (PP) 32% → 36%, Marcelo Castro (MDB) 81% → 79% · AM: Wilson Lima (UNIÃO) 47% → 44%, Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) 34% → 36%, Eduardo Braga (MDB) 96% → 97% · RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 69% → 67%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 10% → 11%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 17% → 18% · SE: Rogerio Carvalho (PT) 56% → 54%, Edvaldo (PDT) 12% → 13%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 10% → 11%, André Moura (UNIÃO) 56% → 55%, Delegado André David (REPUBLICANOS) 17% → 18%, Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 16% → 15%

4 Sep 2026 · 213 polls

CE: Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 31% → 35%, Luizianne (REDE) 69% → 65%, Alcides Fernandes (PL) 16% → 13%, Cid Gomes (PSB) 84% → 86%
RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 66% → 69%, Tércio Tinôco (UNIÃO) 10% → 9%, Zenaide Maia (PSD) 71% → 72%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 18% → 17%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 12% → 10%
SE: Eduardo Amorim (REPUBLICANOS) 23% → 21%, Rogerio Carvalho (PT) 54% → 56%, Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 14% → 16%, Edvaldo (PDT) 13% → 12%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 11% → 10%

4 more states

PR: Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 28% → 26%, Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 41% → 43%, Gleisi (PT) 32% → 34%, Filipe Barros (PL) 32% → 30%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 53% → 54%, Dr Rosinha (PT) 12% → 11%
AL: Dr. Wanderley (MDB) 11% → 9%, Renan (MDB) 63% → 64%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 46% → 47%
PA: Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) 20% → 21%, Celso Sabino (PDT) 11% → 10%, Helder (MDB) 91% → 92%
MA: Roseana Sarney (MDB) 73% → 74%, Enilton Rodrigues (PSOL) 5% → 4%

generated automatically

3 Sep 2026 · 213 polls (+4: BA, PE, PR, RJ)

CE: Luizianne (REDE) 63% → 69%, Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 35% → 31%, Cid Gomes (PSB) 86% → 84%, Alcides Fernandes (PL) 15% → 16%
PI: Ciro Nogueira (PP) 35% → 32%, Marcelo Castro (MDB) 79% → 81%, Julio Cesar (PSD) 63% → 64%
MT: Janaina Riva (MDB) 33% → 35%, Mauro Mendes (UNIÃO) 80% → 78%, Margareth Buzetti (PP) 9% → 8%

3 more states

BA: João Roma (PL) 25% → 26%, Rui Costa (PT) 82% → 80%, Angelo Coronel (REPUBLICANOS) 26% → 27%, Jaques Wagner (PT) 64% → 63%
PE: Marília Arraes (PDT) 76% → 78%, Humberto Costa (PT) 62% → 61%, Mendonça Filho (PL) 12% → 13%
PR: Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 29% → 28%, Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 40% → 41%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 52% → 53%, Dr Rosinha (PT) 13% → 12%

generated automatically

2 Sep 2026 · 209 polls (+7: AL, ES, RN, SP, TO)

Aécio Neves (PSDB) enters the race in MG
Gustavo Galassi (PSDB) leaves the race in MG
Marcelo Heringer (PDT) leaves the race in MG
RS: Rigotto (MDB) 13% → 24%, Pimenta (PT) 36% → 33%, Sanderson (PL) 43% → 39%, Marcel van Hattem (NOVO) 52% → 50%, Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 44% → 45%
AC: Jorge Viana (PT) 11% → 21%, Gladson Camelí (PP) 80% → 76%, Marcio Bittar (PL) 68% → 65%, Mara Rocha (REPUBLICANOS) 17% → 15%, Eduardo Velloso (SOLIDARIEDADE) 8% → 7%, Petecão (PSD) 13% → 12%
MG: Marília Campos (PT) 76% → 67%, Domingos Sávio (PL) 45% → 37%, Carlin Moura (AVANTE) 2% → 8%, Marcelo Aro (PP) 23% → 20%, Carlos Viana (PSD) 24% → 21%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 20% → 17%

23 more states

SE: Eduardo Amorim (REPUBLICANOS) 14% → 23%, André Moura (UNIÃO) 58% → 56%, Rogerio Carvalho (PT) 56% → 54%, Delegado Alessandro (MDB) 16% → 14%, Iran Barbosa (PSOL) 2% → 4%, Delegado André David (REPUBLICANOS) 18% → 17%, Edvaldo (PDT) 14% → 13%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 12% → 11%, Paulinho da União Tur (DC) 3% → 4%
SP: Marina Silva (REDE) 35% → 44%, Simone Tebet (PSB) 48% → 43%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 53% → 50%, André do Prado (PL) 46% → 47%, Salles (NOVO) 11% → 10%, Geraldo Rufino (PODEMOS) 3% → 2%, Soninha Francine (CIDADANIA) 2% → 1%
PR: Gleisi (PT) 24% → 32%, Deltan Dallagnol (NOVO) 45% → 40%, Filipe Barros (PL) 34% → 32%, Dr Rosinha (PT) 10% → 13%, Alexandre Curi (REPUBLICANOS) 54% → 52%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 31% → 29%
MA: Roseana Sarney (MDB) 66% → 73%, Fufuca (PP) 23% → 22%, Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO) 14% → 12%, Weverton Rocha (PDT) 50% → 49%, Eliziane Gama (PT) 20% → 19%, Enilton Rodrigues (PSOL) 6% → 5%
RR: Márcio Junqueira (PSDB) 1% → 7%, Nicoletti (PL) 36% → 34%, Teresa Surita (MDB) 30% → 28%, Chico Rodrigues (PSB) 19% → 18%, Helio Bolsonaro (PL) 14% → 13%
RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 72% → 67%, Pedro Paulo (PSD) 44% → 47%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 21% → 22%, Carlos Portinho (PL) 14% → 13%
AP: Capi (PSB) 1% → 5%, Rayssa Furlan (PODEMOS) 60% → 56%, Alliny Serrão (UNIÃO) 16% → 17%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 8% → 7%
TO: Paulo Mourão (PT) 15% → 19%, Gaguim (UNIÃO) 34% → 32%, Eduardo Gomes (PL) 47% → 46%, Eli Borges (REPUBLICANOS) 21% → 20%, Ronaldo Dimas (PODEMOS) 17% → 16%
AL: Marina JHC (PSDB) 43% → 46%, Renan (MDB) 66% → 63%, Davi Davino Filho (REPUBLICANOS) 5% → 4%, Dr. Wanderley (MDB) 10% → 11%
PE: Paulo Rubem Santiago (REDE) <1% → 4%, Humberto Costa (PT) 63% → 62%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 30% → 28%, Mendonça Filho (PL) 14% → 12%
PB: André Gadelha (MDB) 4% → 7%, Nabor (REPUBLICANOS) 69% → 68%, Veneziano (MDB) 25% → 24%
RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 63% → 66%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 20% → 18%, Zenaide Maia (PSD) 69% → 71%, Tércio Tinôco (UNIÃO) 11% → 10%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 11% → 12%
CE: Luizianne (REDE) 61% → 63%, Capitão Wagner (UNIÃO) 37% → 35%, Alcides Fernandes (PL) 16% → 15%
PA: Chicão (UNIÃO) 47% → 50%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 21% → 20%, Celso Sabino (PDT) 12% → 11%
ES: Rodney Miranda (PRTB) 3% → 5%, Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) 9% → 7%, Callegari (DC) 3% → 2%, Fabiano Contarato (PT) 18% → 17%, Renato Casagrande (PSB) 89% → 90%
PI: Julio Cesar (PSD) 62% → 63%, Marcelo Castro (MDB) 78% → 79%
BA: Jaques Wagner (PT) 62% → 64%
GO: Gracinha Caiado (UNIÃO) 38% → 39%, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) 25% → 24%
DF: Bia Kicis (PL) 48% → 49%, Erika Kokay (PT) 20% → 19%
SC: Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) 60% → 62%, Afrânio Boppré (PSOL) 6% → 7%, Esperidião Amin (PP) 43% → 42%, Décio Lima (PT) 16% → 15%
MS: Capitão Contar (PL) 73% → 74%, Soraya (PSB) 15% → 14%, Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) 94% → 93%
RO: Sílvia Cristina (PP) 39% → 40%, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) 35% → 36%, Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) 68% → 69%
MT: Mauro Mendes (UNIÃO) 79% → 80%

generated automatically

1 Sep 2026 Record v1.01

Threshold clause for the Senate model

projected seats: DC 1 → 0, NOVO 1 → 2 · 202 polls

SP: André do Prado (PL) 42% → 46%, Guilherme Derrite (PP) 56% → 53%, Marina Silva (REDE) 34% → 35%
AL: Renan (MDB) 63% → 66%, Arthur Lira (PP) 76% → 74%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 44% → 43%
TO: Eduardo Gomes (PL) 46% → 47%

The first change to the Senate Model has an odd name: even though this is a chamber decided by plurality vote, we need to introduce a threshold clause into our model. We noticed a side effect of counting the probability of every candidacy: a party with no genuinely competitive candidate anywhere could accumulate probability simply by running candidates in more states, and qualify for a seat according to the model.

To avoid this defect in the forecast, as of today the model adopts two thresholds:

A party can only receive the point estimate of at least one Senate seat if it has at least one candidate with a 20% or higher chance of winning in their state.
A party can only receive the "leftover" seat in the point estimate if it has a remaining candidate with at least a 20% chance of winning a seat.

The logic behind this procedure is to bring the point estimate closer to the mode of the simulations and reduce noise in how the model's results are communicated. The confidence intervals are calculated from the joint simulations and are therefore unaffected by this rule, which is being adopted more as a display rule than as a change to the model's underlying logic. Either way, the model is now considered a new version (1.01).

31 Aug 2026 · projected seats: DC 0 → 1, NOVO 2 → 1 · 202 polls (+6: AP, DF, MS, PA, RN)

Alexandre Mariano (AVANTE) leaves the race in PI
André Monteiro (DEMOCRATA) leaves the race in RJ
DF: Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 82% → 86%, Bia Kicis (PL) 50% → 48%, Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 39% → 38%
ES: Renato Casagrande (PSB) 87% → 89%, Fabiano Contarato (PT) 16% → 18%, Leonardo Monjardim (NOVO) 3% → 1%, Rose de Freitas (MDB) 43% → 42%, Maguinha Malta (PL) 13% → 12%, Evair de Melo (REPUBLICANOS) 14% → 13%, Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) 10% → 9%, Callegari (DC) 4% → 3%
RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 65% → 63%, Samanda de Lula (PT) 14% → 15%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 12% → 11%

21 more states

RJ: Benedita da Silva (PT) 70% → 72%, Marcelo Crivella (REPUBLICANOS) 20% → 21%
AL: Arthur Lira (PP) 75% → 76%, Marina JHC (PSDB) 45% → 44%
MG: Carlos Viana (PSD) 25% → 24%, Domingos Sávio (PL) 44% → 45%, Marília Campos (PT) 75% → 76%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) 19% → 20%, Manoel Carvalho (MDB) 3% → 2%
PI: Marcelo Castro (MDB) 77% → 78%
RS: Manuela D Ávila (PSOL) 45% → 44%, Sanderson (PL) 42% → 43%, Frederico Antunes (PSD) 9% → 8%
GO: Gracinha Caiado (UNIÃO) 37% → 38%, Ernesto Roller (PSDB) 12% → 11%
MT: Pedro Taques (PSB) 30% → 31%
SC: Carol de Toni (PL) 60% → 61%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) 61% → 60%
SE: André Moura (UNIÃO) 57% → 58%
AP: Randolfe (PT) 65% → 64%
RO: Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) 36% → 35%, Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) 69% → 68%
AC: Mara Rocha (REPUBLICANOS) 16% → 17%
PA: Chicão (UNIÃO) 48% → 47%, Helder (MDB) 90% → 91%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 22% → 21%
SP: Marina Silva (REDE) 35% → 34%, Geraldo Rufino (PODEMOS) 2% → 3%
MS: Vander Loubet (PT) 15% → 14%, Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) 93% → 94%
PR: Filipe Barros (PL) 35% → 34%, Cristina Reis Graeml (PSD) 30% → 31%
MA: Roseana Sarney (MDB) 67% → 66%, Eliziane Gama (PT) 19% → 20%, Enilton Rodrigues (PSOL) 5% → 6%
PE: Marília Arraes (PDT) 77% → 76%, Eduardo da Fonte (PP) 29% → 30%
RR: Helena da Asatur (PSD) 72% → 71%
CE: Alcides Fernandes (PL) 15% → 16%
PB: Veneziano (MDB) 26% → 25%

generated automatically

30 Aug 20261 daygenerated automatically

30 Aug 2026 · 196 polls · PA: Chicão (UNIÃO) 52% → 48%, Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) 19% → 20%, Zequinha Marinho (PODEMOS) 20% → 22%, Celso Sabino (PDT) 11% → 12% · AP: Rayssa Furlan (PODEMOS) 64% → 60%, Lucas Barreto (PSD) 44% → 47%, Randolfe (PT) 67% → 65%, Alliny Serrão (UNIÃO) 14% → 16%, Acácio Favacho (MDB) 7% → 8% · DF: Leila do Vôlei (PDT) 42% → 39%, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) 80% → 82% · RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 63% → 65%, Zenaide Maia (PSD) 71% → 69%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 21% → 20%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 11% → 12% · MS: Soraya (PSB) 16% → 15%, Vander Loubet (PT) 14% → 15%

29 Aug 2026 Record v1.0

First publication

196 polls (+3: RN, SE, TO)

RN: Styvenson Valentim (PODEMOS) 61% → 63%, Rafael Motta (PDT) 22% → 21%, Tércio Tinôco (UNIÃO) 12% → 11%, Coronel Hélio (PL) 12% → 11%, Zenaide Maia (PSD) 70% → 71%
SE: Delegado André David (REPUBLICANOS) 17% → 18%, Rodrigo Valadares (PL) 13% → 12%
TO: Paulo Mourão (PT) 14% → 15%

Welcome to Plano Político's 2026 Senate Model. This model is a probabilistic projection of the contest for the 54 Senate seats up in this year's elections, built from public data on election results and opinion polls. To read more about the model, see the methodology. This page will publish every change to the model as it is updated with new polls, as well as any corrections that prove necessary over the course of the campaign.

As of 29 August, the most likely composition of the Senate according to the model is as follows. The first number is how many of the 54 contested seats the party is expected to win; the second is the size of its bench in 2027, adding the seats that are not in play. In brackets, the 80% interval.

PL — 11 seats (8 to 14), 21 in 2027 (18 to 24)
PT — 7 seats (4 to 9), 11 in 2027 (8 to 13)
MDB — 7 seats (4 to 9), 8 in 2027 (5 to 10)
PSD — 5 seats (2 to 6), 7 in 2027 (4 to 8)
PP — 4 seats (2 to 6), 7 in 2027 (5 to 9)
PSB — 4 seats (2 to 5), 5 in 2027 (3 to 6)
UNIÃO — 4 seats (1 to 6), 6 in 2027 (3 to 8)
REPUBLICANOS — 3 seats (1 to 6), 7 in 2027 (5 to 10)
PDT — 2 seats (0 to 4), 2 in 2027 (0 to 4)
PODEMOS — 2 seats (0 to 3), 2 in 2027 (0 to 3)
NOVO — 2 seats (0 to 3), 2 in 2027 (0 to 3)
PSOL — 1 seat (0 to 3), 1 in 2027 (0 to 3)
REDE — 1 seat (0 to 2), 1 in 2027 (0 to 2)
PSDB — 1 seat (0 to 3), 1 in 2027 (0 to 3)
AVANTE — no seats (0 to 2), losing the one it holds today

The intervals are per party and do not add up to 54 or 81: each describes the uncertainty about that one bench, not a complete scenario.