2026 Poll Aggregator

Methodology

Poll aggregators are essential tools for getting as close as possible to the real state of public opinion during a campaign. Relying on a single pollster isn't ideal. Aggregating polls with different methodologies offers the best source of information about the state of a race over time.

Our methodological choices for building this aggregator aim to find the best way to combine the information published in hundreds of polls:

• Recent polls count more: we use every poll we could find data for since January 2026, when TSE registration became mandatory. Polls closer to the election, however, are more likely to correctly anticipate the outcome expressed at the ballot box; so we apply a weight adjustment to each poll based on its fieldwork end date as reported to the TSE.
• The numbers add up to 100 per state, as the TSE reports them: even though each voter picks two names, we show voting intention as a share of valid votes. We always use the single-vote scenario, which keeps the series comparable over time.
• Uncertainty around the numbers is shown as confidence intervals: our confidence intervals are built via bootstrap resampling, meaning the size of the uncertainty is measured from the available data without assumptions about the distribution of errors. The intervals are shown beside each candidate; where they overlap, that represents a chance of a statistical tie.

We don't include polls that have been legally challenged or restricted by a court decision we're aware of. If you notice a poll is missing, you can reach us here.