2018 Presidential Election, 1st round
Pollster Performance
Click a pollster to see its poll trajectory across the campaign. Hover over a column title for a quick explanation.
| Institute | PollsPolls | Movement CaptureMC | Bias (pp)Bias | Weighted Error (pp)WE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direction (pp/wk)Dir. | Volatility (pp/wk)Vol. | Synchrony (0–1)Sync. | ||||
| ▸ MDA | 5 | +0.31 | 0.83 | 0.83 | −0.29 | 1.75 |
| ▸ Paraná Pesquisas | 5 | +0.48 | 0.75 | 0.76 | −4.12 | 2.91 |
| ▸ Ibope | 10 | +0.52 | 2.27 | 0.69 | −3.25 | 3.16 |
| ▸ Ipespe | 19 | +0.39 | 1.69 | 0.72 | −5.85 | 3.28 |
| ▸ Real Time Big Data | 4 | +0.84 | 5.29 | 0.50 | −1.00 | 3.91 |
| ▸ Datafolha | 10 | +0.40 | 1.11 | 0.82 | −5.43 | 4.42 |
| ▸ FSB | 6 | +1.10 | 5.04 | 0.62 | −3.91 | 6.44 |
| ▸ PoderData | 6 | +0.05 | 1.09 | 0.59 | −2.76 | 8.34 |
Data source: TSE | Poder360's poll aggregator | Pollster performance model produced by Plano Político
The table is sorted by Weighted Error, which measures how far the pollster's last poll was from the TSE result. The three Movement Capture columns describe the pollster's full set of polls across the campaign: Direction (which way margins between candidates moved — positive when those above the final result gained on those below), Volatility (average size of swings, corrected for statistical noise), and Synchrony (how much the pollster moved along with the rest of the field). Bias measures whether the pollster, on average, showed Fernando Haddad above or below the final result. Learn more.
Unranked
Pollsters that didn't meet the inclusion criteria (fewer than two polls available, or last poll more than seven days before the election). Shown for reference.
| Pollster | Polls | Last poll | WE (reference) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Populi | 1 | 10/06/2018 | 4.03 |
| Sensus | 1 | 09/24/2018 | 5.62 |
| Veritá | 1 | 10/05/2018 | 5.76 |
| Virtu Análise | 2 | 09/26/2018 | 7.26 |
| Ideia Big Data | 1 | 07/23/2018 | 10.32 |
| Paraná | 1 | 09/11/2018 | 12.43 |